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Marco Trungelliti v Sebastian Ofner
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marco Trungelliti (Local)
assuming max odds 3.20
Sebastian Ofner (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.63
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 36.74%; Sebastian Ofner (Visit): 63.26%. For Marco Trungelliti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.58%.
Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV +17.58%E +5.49%K +7.99%G +1.40% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -17.77%E -13.67%K -59.22%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-12 00:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +10.23%E +3.41%K +5.12%G +0.523% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -13.97%E -10.27%K -38.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-12 00:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +10.23%E +3.41%K +5.12%G +0.523% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -13.97%E -10.27%K -38.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-12 00:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.56%E +2.26%K +3.45%G +0.226% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.44%E -8.17%K -28.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-12 00:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +5.45%E +1.90%K +2.92%G +0.159% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -11.44%E -8.17%K -28.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-12 00:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV +4.72%E +1.66%K +2.55%G +0.120% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -14.60%E -10.82%K -41.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-12 00:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV +2.88%E +1.03%K +1.60%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -13.97%E -10.27%K -38.81%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-12 00:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -11.45%E -4.75%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV +2.48%E +1.53%K +3.99%G +0.099% | 3.2% | 2026-08-11 20:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -11.45%E -4.75%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV +2.48%E +1.53%K +3.99%G +0.099% | 3.2% | 2026-08-11 19:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -11.82%E -4.92%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -2.59%E -1.68%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-12 00:33 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%EV -13.29%E -5.63%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%EV +3.11%E +1.91%K +4.93%G +0.153% | 3.7% | 2026-08-12 00:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -15.49%E -6.73%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +1.21%E +0.756%K +2.02%G +0.024% | 6.0% | 2026-08-12 00:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.68%EV -16.96%E -7.50%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.32%EV -1.95%E -1.26%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-11 23:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 1.7% | 2026-08-12 00:35 |