Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mackenzie McDonald v Wu Yibing

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mackenzie McDonald (Local)

Prediction 36.47%2.74fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.841%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.24%36.44%36.27%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.572.592.6840.00%38.89%38.61%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wu Yibing (Visit)

Prediction 63.53%1.57fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -6.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%63.56%63.73%64.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.491.501.5270.42%67.08%66.67%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mackenzie McDonald (Local): 36.47%; Wu Yibing (Visit): 63.53%. For Mackenzie McDonald (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.68, with an expected value of -2.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV -2.25%E -0.841%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -3.44%E -2.26%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-11 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV -2.25%E -0.841%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -3.44%E -2.26%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-11 19:20
Pinnacle🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 36.12%EV -2.62%E -0.981%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -4.07%E -2.70%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-11 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.24%EV -4.81%E -1.84%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.76%EV -9.79%E -6.89%K -23.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-11 19:30
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.71%E -3.14%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.98%E -4.04%K -12.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-11 19:15
GTbets🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.83%EV -5.54%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.17%EV -4.07%E -2.70%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-11 13:29
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.44%E -2.26%K -6.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 17:00
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.71%E -3.14%K -9.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-11 19:20
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.98%E -4.04%K -12.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 19:15
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.98%E -4.04%K -12.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.98%E -4.04%K -12.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 14:05
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.13%EV -7.25%E -4.97%K -15.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-11 19:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%1.1%2026-08-11 19:40