Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

JJ Wolf v Shintaro Mochizuki

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 02:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JJ Wolf (Local)

Prediction 61.79%1.62fair odd

EV +1.95%

Edge +1.18%

Kelly +3.00%

Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.14%61.52%62.60%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.471.561.561.6568.03%63.98%64.10%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit)

Prediction 38.21%2.62fair odd

EV +1.26%

Edge +0.476%

Kelly +0.764%

Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.59%38.48%37.40%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.382.302.6546.51%42.08%43.48%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JJ Wolf (Local): 61.79%; Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit): 38.21%. For JJ Wolf (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV +1.95%E +1.18%K +3.00%G +0.059%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -15.93%E -7.24%K -13.28%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-12 02:34
theScore Bet🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -0.521%E -0.323%K -0.854%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -14.02%E -6.23%K -11.22%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-08-12 02:34
Coral🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -0.521%E -0.323%K -0.854%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -15.93%E -7.24%K -13.28%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-12 02:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -0.521%E -0.323%K -0.854%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -15.93%E -7.24%K -13.28%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-12 02:34
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -1.14%E -0.712%K -1.90%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -17.85%E -8.30%K -15.52%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-08-12 02:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -1.76%E -1.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -12.11%E -5.27%K -9.32%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-12 02:29
Fliff🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -3.61%E -2.31%K -6.45%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -14.02%E -6.23%K -11.22%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-12 02:35
LowVig.ag🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -5.46%E -3.57%K -10.31%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +1.26%E +0.476%K +0.764%G +0.010%	3.1%	2026-08-12 01:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -5.46%E -3.57%K -10.31%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +1.26%E +0.476%K +0.764%G +0.010%	3.1%	2026-08-12 01:25
Pinnacle🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -5.46%E -3.57%K -10.31%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -0.650%E -0.250%K -0.406%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-12 01:50
BoyleSports🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.46%E -3.57%K -10.31%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -9.06%E -3.81%K -6.56%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-12 02:30
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.32%E -4.88%K -14.63%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.650%E -0.250%K -0.406%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-12 01:09
Marathon Bet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.60%EV -9.17%E -6.24%K -19.51%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 37.40%EV -6.00%E -2.44%K -4.11%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-12 02:28

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%	2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%	2.8%	2026-08-12 02:34