Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jaime Faria v Wu Yibing

Kickoff: 2026-08-13 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jaime Faria (Local)

Prediction 54.45%1.84fair odd

EV +13.25%

Edge +6.37%

Kelly +12.27%

Growth +1.63%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.25%54.10%57.69%60.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.791.702.0865.36%55.89%58.82%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wu Yibing (Visit)

Prediction 45.55%2.20fair odd

EV +7.05%

Edge +3.00%

Kelly +5.22%

Growth +0.368%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.95%45.90%42.31%53.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.752.042.102.3557.14%49.11%47.62%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jaime Faria (Local): 54.45%; Wu Yibing (Visit): 45.55%. For Jaime Faria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV +13.25%E +6.37%K +12.27%G +1.63%	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -18.46%E -10.31%K -23.37%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-12 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV +12.71%E +6.14%K +11.88%G +1.51%	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -18.46%E -10.31%K -23.37%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-12 17:24
LowVig.ag🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV +12.71%E +6.14%K +11.88%G +1.51%	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -18.46%E -10.31%K -23.37%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-12 17:24
Pinnacle🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV +8.90%E +4.45%K +8.90%G +0.792%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -15.73%E -8.50%K -18.51%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-12 23:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 47.43%EV +5.63%E +2.90%K +5.99%G +0.337%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.57%EV -20.29%E -11.59%K -27.05%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-13 00:24
NordicBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -1.99%E -1.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -13.45%E -7.08%K -14.95%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-13 01:54
Coral🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-13 01:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-13 01:54
Betway🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -10.16%E -6.16%K -15.63%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +2.49%E +1.11%K +1.99%G +0.050%	5.1%	2026-08-13 01:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -13.43%E -8.44%K -22.76%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV +4.77%E +2.07%K +3.67%G +0.175%	6.4%	2026-08-13 01:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -14.52%E -9.25%K -25.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +7.05%E +3.00%K +5.22%G +0.368%	6.2%	2026-08-13 01:55
Fliff🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -15.06%E -9.65%K -26.89%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV +0.212%E +0.097%K +0.177%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-08-13 01:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -16.69%E -10.91%K -31.50%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV +4.77%E +2.07%K +3.67%G +0.175%	8.8%	2026-08-13 01:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%	2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%	0.8%	2026-08-13 01:55