Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hugo Gaston v Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2026-08-11 19:00 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hugo Gaston (Local)

Prediction 54.42%1.84fair odd

EV -2.59%

Edge -1.45%

Kelly -3.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.91%54.45%54.38%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.671.741.731.7959.88%57.61%57.64%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (Visit)

Prediction 45.58%2.19fair odd

EV -2.91%

Edge -1.37%

Kelly -2.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.30%45.55%45.62%47.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.072.072.1350.00%48.37%48.31%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Hugo Gaston (Local): 54.42%; Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (Visit): 45.58%. For Hugo Gaston (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.79, with an expected value of -2.59%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -2.59%E -1.45%K -3.28%G +0.000%	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -7.47%E -3.68%K -7.25%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-11 11:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -3.14%E -1.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -4.73%E -2.27%K -4.34%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-11 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -3.14%E -1.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -4.73%E -2.27%K -4.34%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-11 13:00
PlayUp🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -3.14%E -1.76%K -4.02%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -8.84%E -4.42%K -8.84%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-11 12:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -5.31%E -3.05%K -7.18%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -2.91%E -1.37%K -2.58%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-11 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.31%E -3.05%K -7.18%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.56%E -3.20%K -6.25%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-11 12:54
Betway🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.86%E -3.38%K -8.02%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.28%E -2.04%K -3.89%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-11 12:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.86%E -3.38%K -8.02%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.56%E -3.20%K -6.25%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-08-11 11:19
theScore Bet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.94%E -4.06%K -9.78%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.56%E -3.20%K -6.25%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-08-11 12:54
NordicBet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -6.94%E -4.06%K -9.78%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -7.93%E -3.92%K -7.77%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-11 12:55
Coral🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.12%E -5.46%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.28%E -2.04%K -3.89%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-11 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.12%E -5.46%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.28%E -2.04%K -3.89%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-11 11:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.79I 55.87%NM 55.03%	2.19I 45.66%NM 44.97%	1.5%	2026-08-11 13:25

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