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Henrique Rocha v Nicolas Mejia

2026-08-13 17:00 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henrique Rocha (Local)

Prediction 55.35%1.81fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -4.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.78%55.36%55.41%56.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.681.7560.61%59.15%59.52%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nicolas Mejia (Visit)

Prediction 44.65%2.24fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.26%44.64%44.59%45.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.112.1948.78%47.20%47.39%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Henrique Rocha (Local): 55.35%; Nicolas Mejia (Visit): 44.65%. For Nicolas Mejia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.19, with an expected value of -2.22%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.14%E -1.79%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.47%E -4.13%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-13 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.69%E -2.12%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.45%E -2.08%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-13 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.24%E -2.45%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.11%E -1.43%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-13 13:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.24%E -2.45%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.11%E -1.43%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-13 13:09
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.24%E -2.45%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.46%E -3.82%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.00%E -1.86%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-13 13:09
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.46%E -3.82%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-13 08:29
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.74%EV -7.56%E -4.53%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -2.22%E -1.01%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-13 09:25
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.56%E -4.53%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-13 08:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.56%E -4.53%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-13 08:40
NordicBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -7.56%E -4.53%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV -7.13%E -3.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-13 13:10
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.56%E -4.53%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.47%E -4.13%K -8.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-13 13:19
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.35%EV -8.67%E -5.26%K -13.34%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -4.90%E -2.30%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 13:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -8.67%E -5.26%K -13.34%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -7.13%E -3.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-13 13:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%0.7%2026-08-13 13:15

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