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Francesco Maestrelli v Bu Yunchaokete
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francesco Maestrelli (Local)
assuming max odds 4.01
Bu Yunchaokete (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francesco Maestrelli (Local): 25.33%; Bu Yunchaokete (Visit): 74.67%. For Francesco Maestrelli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.05%EV +1.57%E +0.390%K +0.520%G +0.008% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.95%EV -5.17%E -4.07%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-11 23:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.31%E +0.328%K +0.437%G +0.006% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.66%E -5.33%K -26.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 16:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -2.23%E -0.579%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.10%EV -4.42%E -3.45%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-11 16:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -2.23%E -0.579%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.10%EV -4.42%E -3.45%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-11 16:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.02%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.17%E -4.07%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-11 22:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.29%E -1.70%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.66%E -5.33%K -26.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-11 10:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.29%E -1.70%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.66%E -5.33%K -26.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-11 10:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.82%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.17%E -4.07%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-11 10:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.82%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.66%E -5.33%K -26.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-11 23:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 25.83%EV -9.83%E -2.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.17%EV -7.41%E -5.97%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-11 23:37 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -12.62%E -3.66%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -2.93%E -2.25%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-11 16:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.67%E -2.85%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -15.15%E -4.52%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.67%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-11 23:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -16.42%E -4.97%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -5.17%E -4.07%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-11 23:34 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-11 23:40 |