Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dusan Lajovic v Benjamin Bonzi

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 18:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

20%

80%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dusan Lajovic (Local)

Prediction 19.99%5.00fair odd

EV +4.94%

Edge +0.941%

Kelly +1.16%

Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.97%23.71%19.76%40.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.374.584.755.2542.19%21.83%21.05%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benjamin Bonzi (Visit)

Prediction 80.01%1.25fair odd

EV +29.62%

Edge +18.28%

Kelly +47.77%

Growth +14.15%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.40%76.29%80.24%82.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.211.171.6287.72%82.57%85.47%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dusan Lajovic (Local): 19.99%; Benjamin Bonzi (Visit): 80.01%. For Benjamin Bonzi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +29.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -52.63%E -22.21%K -38.41%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV +29.62%E +18.28%K +47.77%G +14.15%	3.9%	2026-08-11 18:10
BoyleSports🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -16.05%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -3.99%E -3.32%K -19.93%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-11 18:24
Coral🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.055%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.57%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-11 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.055%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.57%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-11 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -5.05%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.57%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-11 18:24
Betway🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +4.94%E +0.941%K +1.16%G +0.057%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.99%E -6.95%K -53.25%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-11 18:24
theScore Bet🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV +3.94%E +0.758%K +0.939%G +0.037%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -8.79%E -7.71%K -62.77%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-11 18:25
Fliff🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -5.05%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.65%EV -8.79%E -7.71%K -62.77%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-08-11 18:24
NordicBet🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.52%EV -6.05%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.48%EV -8.79%E -7.71%K -62.77%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-08-11 18:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.73%	1.21I 82.64%NM 81.27%	1.7%	2026-08-11 18:25