Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Christopher O'Connell v Dane Sweeny

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Christopher O'Connell (Local)

Prediction 62.29%1.61fair odd

EV -2.21%

Edge -1.41%

Kelly -3.87%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.25%62.42%62.03%64.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.511.501.5766.67%66.12%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dane Sweeny (Visit)

Prediction 37.71%2.65fair odd

EV +1.82%

Edge +0.674%

Kelly +1.07%

Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.87%37.58%37.97%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.382.502.452.7042.02%40.05%40.82%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Christopher O'Connell (Local): 62.29%; Dane Sweeny (Visit): 37.71%. For Dane Sweeny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -5.94%E -3.94%K -11.65%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV +1.82%E +0.674%K +1.07%G +0.019%	3.3%	2026-08-11 14:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -5.94%E -3.94%K -11.65%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV +1.82%E +0.674%K +1.07%G +0.019%	3.3%	2026-08-11 14:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.32%E -3.50%K -10.23%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.95%E -0.750%K -1.22%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-11 12:55
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.95%E -0.750%K -1.22%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-11 12:49
PlayUp🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.32%E -3.50%K -10.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-11 12:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.86%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.61%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-11 14:54
Coral🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.61%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-11 10:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.61%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-11 10:14
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.61%E -3.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-11 10:14
NordicBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.73%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -8.74%E -3.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-11 14:55
GTbets🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.21%E -1.41%K -3.87%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -10.25%E -4.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-11 10:15
Marathon Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -10.25%E -4.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-11 14:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -10.25%E -4.31%K -7.43%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-11 14:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65%	2.2%	2026-08-11 14:55