Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Billy Harris v Kyrian Jacquet

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 01:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Billy Harris (Local)

Prediction 28.41%3.52fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.406%
Kelly -0.570%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.71%28.45%28.42%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.303.4733.33%30.48%30.30%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyrian Jacquet (Visit)

Prediction 71.59%1.40fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.876%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.49%71.55%71.58%72.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.331.331.3876.92%75.38%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Billy Harris (Local): 28.41%; Kyrian Jacquet (Visit): 71.59%. For Kyrian Jacquet (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.38, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV -1.41%E -0.406%K -0.570%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -4.79%E -3.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-12 00:15
LowVig.ag🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 28.09%EV -2.54%E -0.742%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.91%EV -4.07%E -3.04%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-11 20:15
BetOnline.ag🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 28.09%EV -2.54%E -0.742%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.91%EV -4.07%E -3.04%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-11 20:15
GTbets🎯3.39I 29.50%NM 28.48%EV -3.68%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.52%EV -3.36%E -2.49%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 00:04
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.79%E -3.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-12 01:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.22%E -4.75%K -20.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-11 18:55
theScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.22%E -4.75%K -20.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-11 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.24%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-11 13:44
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.08%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.79%E -3.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 01:40
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -10.50%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-12 01:35
Fliff🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.92%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-12 01:40
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.21%E -0.876%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 01:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%1.3%2026-08-12 01:40