Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Vukic v Mark Lajal

Kickoff: 2026-08-13 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

60%

40%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Vukic (Local)

Prediction 59.54%1.68fair odd

EV +1.22%

Edge +0.716%

Kelly +1.74%

Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.70%59.28%60.02%60.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.521.601.561.7065.79%62.39%63.90%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mark Lajal (Visit)

Prediction 40.46%2.47fair odd

EV -2.89%

Edge -1.21%

Kelly -2.07%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.09%40.72%39.98%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.282.282.4047.62%43.80%43.86%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Vukic (Local): 59.54%; Mark Lajal (Visit): 40.46%. For Aleksandar Vukic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV +1.22%E +0.716%K +1.74%G +0.021%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -10.18%E -4.58%K -8.34%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-13 15:40
LowVig.ag🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV +1.22%E +0.716%K +1.74%G +0.021%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -10.18%E -4.58%K -8.34%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-13 15:40
Pinnacle🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV +0.026%E +0.016%K +0.038%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -8.56%E -3.79%K -6.79%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-13 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -0.569%E -0.341%K -0.850%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -15.03%E -7.16%K -13.67%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-13 16:54
GTbets🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -1.16%E -0.702%K -1.76%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -13.41%E -6.27%K -11.77%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-13 16:39
PlayUp🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -1.76%E -1.07%K -2.71%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -10.99%E -4.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-13 16:35
BoyleSports🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.52%E -4.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-13 16:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.12%E -4.56%K -12.71%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.89%E -1.21%K -2.07%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-13 16:55
Fliff🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.12%E -4.56%K -12.71%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.96%E -3.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-13 16:54
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.71%E -4.98%K -14.03%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.89%E -1.21%K -2.07%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-13 16:54
ReBet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.71%E -4.98%K -14.03%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.89%E -1.21%K -2.07%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-13 16:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.31%E -5.40%K -15.39%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -2.89%E -1.21%K -2.07%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-08-13 16:55
Coral🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -8.90%E -5.82%K -16.80%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -4.11%E -1.73%K -3.00%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-13 16:55
NordicBet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -9.50%E -6.25%K -18.27%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-08-13 16:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.