Language:English
Zhizhen Zhang v Arthur Gea
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Zhizhen Zhang (Local)
Prediction 22.65%4.41fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.480%
Kelly +0.616%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 4.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.01%22.82%22.51%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.104.104.5129.41%24.37%24.39%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Gea (Visit)
Prediction 77.35%1.29fair odd
EV -0.222%
Edge -0.172%
Kelly -0.764%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.49%77.18%77.49%78.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.231.231.2985.47%81.26%80.97%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zhizhen Zhang (Local): 22.65%; Arthur Gea (Visit): 77.35%. For Zhizhen Zhang (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.51, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.57%EV +2.16%E +0.480%K +0.616%G +0.013% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.43%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-30 09:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +1.94%E +0.430%K +0.553%G +0.011% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-30 09:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +1.94%E +0.430%K +0.553%G +0.011% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.41%E -5.30%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-30 08:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV -0.329%E -0.075%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-30 08:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -0.329%E -0.075%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.50%E -8.12%K -55.90%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-30 08:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV -1.69%E -0.389%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -4.86%E -3.95%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 09:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -2.59%E -0.603%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34%EV -2.54%E -2.02%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -2.59%E -0.603%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-30 08:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -2.59%E -0.603%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-30 08:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -2.59%E -0.603%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.86%E -3.95%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 09:21 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.59%E -0.603%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 09:21 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.32%EV -3.05%E -0.712%K -0.929%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.68%EV -4.86%E -3.95%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 09:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -3.73%E -0.877%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.86%E -3.95%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-30 09:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -3.73%E -0.877%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 09:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -3.73%E -0.877%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 07:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.73%E -0.877%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -7.18%E -5.99%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-30 08:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.86%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.86%E -3.95%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-30 08:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.86%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 09:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.86%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 09:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.86%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 08:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.86%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.18%E -5.99%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-30 07:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -4.86%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -7.96%E -6.69%K -41.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-30 09:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -5.99%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-30 09:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -5.99%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-30 09:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.86%E -3.95%K -21.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-30 08:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.12%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.32%E -2.65%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 07:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.32%E -2.65%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 07:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.32%E -2.65%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 07:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.32%E -2.65%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 07:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 09:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.09%E -3.30%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 07:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 07:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 08:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 09:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.18%E -5.99%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-30 08:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.18%E -5.99%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-30 07:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.64%E -4.62%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-30 07:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -12.79%E -3.32%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.39%EV -7.96%E -6.69%K -41.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-30 09:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -13.92%E -3.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%EV -7.18%E -5.99%K -35.91%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-30 08:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -16.19%E -4.37%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -2.54%E -2.02%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 07:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -16.19%E -4.37%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -2.54%E -2.02%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 07:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -22.98%E -6.76%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -0.222%E -0.172%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 20:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -22.98%E -6.76%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -0.222%E -0.172%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 20:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-09-30 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-09-30 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-09-30 09:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-09-30 09:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 1.3% | 2026-09-30 09:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.39% | 3.2% | 2026-09-30 09:50 |