Language:English
Nuno Borges v Novak Djokovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nuno Borges (Local)
Prediction 29.08%3.44fair odd
EV +7.59%
Edge +2.05%
Kelly +2.81%
Growth +0.214%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.30%28.93%29.04%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.243.203.7034.48%30.84%31.25%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Novak Djokovic (Visit)
Prediction 70.92%1.41fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -5.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.76%71.07%70.96%74.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.341.3880.00%75.05%74.63%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuno Borges (Local): 29.08%; Novak Djokovic (Visit): 70.92%. For Nuno Borges (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +7.59%E +2.05%K +2.81%G +0.214% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -8.51%E -6.60%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-30 11:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.30%EV +7.30%E +1.98%K +2.71%G +0.198% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.70%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +3.23%E +0.910%K +1.27%G +0.041% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -8.51%E -6.60%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-30 11:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.78%E +0.508%K +0.711%G +0.013% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +1.78%E +0.508%K +0.711%G +0.013% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.51%E -6.60%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-30 11:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV +1.78%E +0.508%K +0.711%G +0.013% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 11:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV +1.78%E +0.508%K +0.711%G +0.013% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.95%EV +1.20%E +0.344%K +0.482%G +0.006% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.05%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-30 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -1.13%E -0.333%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.58%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-30 11:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -1.13%E -0.333%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-30 10:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.13%E -0.333%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 08:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -1.13%E -0.333%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.93%E -7.82%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -2.00%E -0.594%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 09:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -2.00%E -0.594%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 09:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -2.58%E -0.772%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-30 09:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV -3.46%E -1.04%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 10:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51%EV -2.13%E -1.54%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-30 08:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-30 10:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-30 09:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 11:01 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 10:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 08:06 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 07:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 11:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -6.37%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-30 11:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-30 08:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 08:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 08:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 11:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 11:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 09:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%EV -8.51%E -6.60%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -8.40%E -2.67%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-30 10:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-30 08:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-30 08:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -11.31%E -3.71%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-30 08:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-30 08:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-30 08:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-30 08:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.91%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -9.22%E -7.20%K -32.93%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-30 11:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -15.67%E -5.40%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -2.13%E -1.54%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 09:51 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 0.4% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-09-30 11:01 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-09-30 11:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.27% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.73% | 1.9% | 2026-09-30 11:05 |