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Novak Djokovic v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Novak Djokovic (Local)
Prediction 61.14%1.64fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.968%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.60%61.09%61.10%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.541.531.6168.49%65.13%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 38.86%2.57fair odd
EV -0.529%
Edge -0.207%
Kelly -0.339%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%38.91%38.90%40.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.432.422.5642.55%41.19%41.41%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Novak Djokovic (Local): 61.14%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 38.86%. For Alex de Minaur (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.56, with an expected value of -0.529%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -1.56%E -0.968%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -4.80%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -2.17%E -1.36%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -8.30%E -3.52%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.80%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-05 15:12 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.97%E -2.47%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.00%E -2.55%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.75%E -2.81%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.62%E -2.96%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.86%E -1.14%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.62%E -2.96%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.80%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.29%EV -5.23%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.71%EV -0.529%E -0.207%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.23%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.03%E -1.63%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.23%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.80%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.23%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.75%E -2.81%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.23%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.75%E -2.81%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.23%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.75%E -2.81%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -5.23%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -7.91%E -3.34%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -5.23%E -3.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -7.91%E -3.34%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -6.45%E -4.22%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -3.64%E -1.47%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -6.45%E -4.22%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.25%EV -4.03%E -1.63%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -6.45%E -4.22%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.25%EV -4.03%E -1.63%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.45%E -4.22%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.80%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.45%E -4.22%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.75%E -2.81%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.45%E -4.22%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.75%E -2.81%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.45%E -4.22%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.52%E -3.16%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 15:16 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.45%E -4.22%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.52%E -3.16%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 15:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.06%E -4.65%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.86%E -1.14%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -7.67%E -5.08%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.80%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.86%E -1.14%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.80%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.64%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.36%EV -6.36%E -2.64%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 15:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.75%E -2.81%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -9.51%E -6.42%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -8.69%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-05 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -9.51%E -6.42%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -8.69%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-05 15:01 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.18%EV -10.73%E -7.35%K -23.33%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -6.75%E -2.81%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 15:16 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 2.2% | 2026-10-05 15:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 2.2% | 2026-10-05 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 2.2% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 2.2% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |