Language:English
Hubert Hurkacz v Arthur Gea
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hubert Hurkacz (Local)
Prediction 56.49%1.77fair odd
EV +0.554%
Edge +0.311%
Kelly +0.710%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%56.42%56.48%59.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.691.711.7862.89%59.09%58.48%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Gea (Visit)
Prediction 43.51%2.30fair odd
EV +0.071%
Edge +0.031%
Kelly +0.054%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.87%43.58%43.52%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.152.152.3049.02%46.60%46.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hubert Hurkacz (Local): 56.49%; Arthur Gea (Visit): 43.51%. For Hubert Hurkacz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.554%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV +0.554%E +0.311%K +0.710%G +0.004% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -9.07%E -4.34%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV +0.554%E +0.311%K +0.710%G +0.004% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -9.07%E -4.34%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.14%E -0.652%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.14%E -0.652%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV -1.71%E -0.980%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%EV -2.54%E -1.13%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -1.71%E -0.980%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -10.37%E -5.03%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.27%E -1.31%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.27%E -1.31%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.27%E -1.31%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 11:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.27%E -1.31%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.27%E -1.31%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.27%E -1.31%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%EV -4.72%E -2.15%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-02 11:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 10:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 10:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.40%E -1.99%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.40%E -1.99%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 11:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -3.40%E -1.99%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -6.89%E -3.22%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.40%E -1.99%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.53%E -2.68%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.53%E -2.68%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.10%E -3.03%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.10%E -3.03%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.15%E -2.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.10%E -3.03%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.10%E -3.03%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 18:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.71%EV -2.54%E -1.13%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-02 05:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 14:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 06:13 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 18:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.22%E -3.75%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 05:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.28%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.72%EV -11.24%E -5.51%K -10.81%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -7.35%E -4.48%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.48%E -5.24%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 14:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.48%E -5.24%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 14:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.05%E -5.62%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-02 06:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.05%E -5.62%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-02 06:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -9.05%E -5.62%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.15%E -2.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.61%E -6.01%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -9.61%E -6.01%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-02 11:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -10.18%E -6.40%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV +0.071%E +0.031%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 15:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-10-02 11:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13% | 0.4% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86% | 0.9% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82% | 2.0% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |