Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Pablo Carreno Busta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 81.35%1.23fair odd
EV +4.95%
Edge +3.83%
Kelly +17.05%
Growth +0.844%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.07%81.16%81.17%83.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2989.29%85.40%85.47%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit)
Prediction 18.65%5.36fair odd
EV +7.59%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.121%
assuming max odds 5.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.74%18.84%18.83%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.945.005.7728.57%20.23%20.00%17.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 81.35%; Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit): 18.65%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV +4.95%E +3.83%K +17.05%G +0.844% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -34.74%E -9.92%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 06:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -0.749%E -0.614%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -25.41%E -6.35%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 16:16 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.52%EV -1.56%E -1.29%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -2.38%E -1.98%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -25.41%E -6.35%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-02 06:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.17%EV -3.19%E -2.68%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 5.13I 19.49%NM 18.83%EV -4.34%E -0.847%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-02 06:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV -3.97%E -0.771%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 06:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV -3.97%E -0.771%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 06:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -14.23%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -14.23%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -19.26%E -4.45%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-02 06:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -4.00%E -3.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -19.26%E -4.45%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-02 06:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +2.56%E +0.465%K +0.568%G +0.015% | 3.7% | 2026-10-02 06:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.11%E -0.401%K -0.495%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.11%E -0.401%K -0.495%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-02 06:21 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -3.04%E -0.584%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -3.04%E -0.584%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.90%E -0.961%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 06:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.90%E -0.961%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 06:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 06:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 06:13 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 06:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 06:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.88%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.12%EV -7.70%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 06:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -9.56%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.82%E -4.12%K -28.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -16.09%E -3.58%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 06:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.26%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.77I 17.33%NM 16.74%EV +7.59%E +1.32%K +1.59%G +0.121% | 3.5% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.10%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 17.90%EV -0.800%E -0.150%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 06:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -2.11%E -0.401%K -0.495%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.04%E -0.584%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 06:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 06:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.63%E -4.85%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -6.44%E -5.60%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -1.17%E -0.221%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 06:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.44%E -5.60%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.11%E -0.401%K -0.495%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 06:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.44%E -5.60%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.11%E -0.401%K -0.495%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 06:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.45%EV -6.44%E -5.60%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.55%EV -5.83%E -1.16%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-02 06:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.44%E -5.60%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.44%E -5.60%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.44%E -5.60%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.26%E -6.37%K -51.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 06:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.14%EV -7.26%E -6.37%K -51.84%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -14.23%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -8.88%E -7.93%K -74.03%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -1.17%E -0.221%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -8.88%E -7.93%K -74.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -10.50%E -2.19%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-02 06:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51% | 0.2% | 2026-10-02 06:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51% | 0.2% | 2026-10-02 06:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51% | 0.2% | 2026-10-02 06:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 0.9% | 2026-10-02 06:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 0.9% | 2026-10-02 06:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.85% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.15% | 2.3% | 2026-10-02 06:55 |