Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Jan-Lennard Struff
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 82.57%1.21fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -14.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.67%82.47%82.71%83.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.151.1890.09%86.71%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit)
Prediction 17.43%5.74fair odd
EV +4.58%
Edge +0.763%
Kelly +0.915%
Growth +0.042%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.06%17.53%17.29%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.355.255.306.0022.99%19.05%18.87%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 82.57%; Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit): 17.43%. For Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.74. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.58%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +4.58%E +0.763%K +0.915%G +0.042% | 3.6% | 2026-10-03 06:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.78%EV -4.22%E -3.64%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 5.99I 16.69%NM 16.22%EV +4.40%E +0.735%K +0.882%G +0.039% | 2.9% | 2026-10-03 09:26 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV +3.88%E +0.651%K +0.782%G +0.030% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 09:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV +3.88%E +0.651%K +0.782%G +0.030% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 09:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -6.70%E -5.92%K -51.50%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV +2.83%E +0.480%K +0.578%G +0.016% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 23:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.40%E -0.428%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 06:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%EV -3.27%E -0.589%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 10:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.76%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.24%EV -3.79%E -0.687%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 11:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 09:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 04:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 09:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 23:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 11:44 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 08:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 21:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 09:36 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 20:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 12:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.70%E -5.92%K -51.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 20:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.70%E -5.92%K -51.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 12:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.70%E -5.92%K -51.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 12:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.70%E -5.92%K -51.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 09:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.52%E -6.71%K -62.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 20:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -8.35%E -7.52%K -75.88%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -4.14%E -0.753%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-02 19:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.60%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.46I 18.32%NM 17.40%EV -4.84%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 05:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -5.88%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -5.88%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 20:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.70%E -5.92%K -51.50%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -5.88%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 20:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -7.52%E -6.71%K -62.67%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -5.88%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 09:56 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -7.62%E -1.44%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 10:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -7.62%E -1.44%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 10:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 09:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.04%E -4.39%K -33.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 09:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -4.22%E -3.64%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -11.11%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 10:03 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-02 11:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.39%E -2.90%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 09:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.39%E -2.90%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 09:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.39%E -2.90%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 09:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.39%E -2.90%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 09:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.22%E -3.64%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 11:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.22%E -3.64%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 12:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.22%E -3.64%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 12:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 12:01 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 12:01 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -12.85%E -2.57%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 10:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 10:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 10:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 10:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 10:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 10:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 10:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.57%E -2.18%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.14%EV -5.87%E -5.15%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -19.83%E -4.31%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-02 11:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.67%EV -8.35%E -7.52%K -75.88%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.33%EV -24.18%E -5.56%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-03 09:51 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 10:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 10:01 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 10:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 10:01 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.86% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 15.14% | 1.6% | 2026-10-03 09:36 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.16% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.84% | 2.1% | 2026-10-03 09:45 |