Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Mariano Navone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 77.89%1.28fair odd
EV +0.479%
Edge +0.371%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.62%77.68%77.78%79.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2984.75%81.95%81.97%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mariano Navone (Visit)
Prediction 22.11%4.52fair odd
EV +3.91%
Edge +0.833%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%22.32%22.22%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.174.254.7027.78%23.98%23.53%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 77.89%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 22.11%. For Mariano Navone (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -5.75%E -4.75%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV +3.91%E +0.833%K +1.06%G +0.041% | 3.9% | 2026-10-01 03:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -5.75%E -4.75%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV +0.376%E +0.083%K +0.106%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 02:52 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.75%E -4.75%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.508%E -0.113%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.508%E -0.113%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.508%E -0.113%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-29 06:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -1.61%E -0.363%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -2.72%E -0.618%K -0.800%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -3.82%E -0.879%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -3.82%E -0.879%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -8.09%E -6.85%K -44.94%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -4.27%E -0.985%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-29 13:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -8.09%E -6.85%K -44.94%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -4.27%E -0.985%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-29 13:41 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.55%EV -8.09%E -6.85%K -44.94%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.45%EV -4.49%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-30 08:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.93%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.93%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-01 02:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -8.09%E -6.85%K -44.94%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -4.93%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 02:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.13%EV -1.86%E -1.47%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.87%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.42%E -2.75%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.19%E -3.41%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 02:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 02:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-29 11:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.75%E -4.75%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-29 22:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -8.09%E -6.85%K -44.94%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -6.04%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.42%E -2.75%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 01:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.19%E -3.41%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 02:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-29 22:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-29 22:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-29 11:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.95%EV -3.42%E -2.75%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.05%EV -8.47%E -2.05%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -1.86%E -1.47%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -10.68%E -2.64%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -1.86%E -1.47%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -10.68%E -2.64%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.53%E -5.44%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.00%EV -8.09%E -6.85%K -44.94%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.67%E -3.21%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-30 11:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -2.64%E -2.11%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -13.77%E -3.53%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 02:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -3.42%E -2.75%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -13.77%E -3.53%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 11:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -3.42%E -2.75%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -13.77%E -3.53%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 11:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -4.97%E -4.08%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -13.77%E -3.53%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -2.64%E -2.11%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -14.88%E -3.86%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 02:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.54%EV -8.09%E -6.85%K -44.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -14.88%E -3.86%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -3.42%E -2.75%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -15.98%E -4.21%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV +0.479%E +0.371%K +1.65%G +0.008% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -20.41%E -5.67%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV +0.479%E +0.371%K +1.65%G +0.008% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -20.41%E -5.67%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV +0.479%E +0.371%K +1.65%G +0.008% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -20.41%E -5.67%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV +0.479%E +0.371%K +1.65%G +0.008% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -20.41%E -5.67%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-10-01 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-10-01 01:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.80% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 22.20% | 1.2% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |