Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shintaro Mochizuki v Dane Sweeny

2026-08-01 18:30 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shintaro Mochizuki (Local)

Prediction 58.89%1.70fair odd

EV -2.24%

Edge -1.35%

Kelly -3.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.12%58.94%58.74%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.601.581.6663.69%62.37%63.09%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dane Sweeny (Visit)

Prediction 41.11%2.43fair odd

EV -2.16%

Edge -0.908%

Kelly -1.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.05%41.06%41.26%41.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.222.302.302.3845.05%43.45%43.38%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Shintaro Mochizuki (Local): 58.89%; Dane Sweeny (Visit): 41.11%. For Dane Sweeny (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.38, with an expected value of -2.16%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -2.24%E -1.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -4.63%E -1.99%K -3.51%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-08-01 12:40
Pinnacle	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.12%EV -2.83%E -1.71%K -4.35%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.88%EV -5.86%E -2.56%K -4.54%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-01 11:50
Betway	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -2.16%E -0.908%K -1.57%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-01 11:44
PointsBet (AU)	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.40%E -1.44%K -2.51%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-01 09:19
BoyleSports	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.51%E -3.34%K -6.00%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-01 09:19
Marathon Bet	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.58%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.23%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 41.42%EV -8.74%E -3.94%K -7.16%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-01 10:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig	1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%	2.3%	2026-08-01 13:10