Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Corentin Moutet
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 73.00%1.37fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -8.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.64%73.26%72.92%76.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.281.291.3382.64%78.09%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Corentin Moutet (Visit)
Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV +10.68%
Edge +2.61%
Kelly +3.45%
Growth +0.368%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.22%26.74%27.08%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.653.574.1031.25%27.39%28.01%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 73.00%; Corentin Moutet (Visit): 27.00%. For Corentin Moutet (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 24 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.68%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.68%E +2.61%K +3.45%G +0.368% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV +7.99%E +2.00%K +2.66%G +0.213% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -10.94%E -8.96%K -49.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +7.99%E +2.00%K +2.66%G +0.213% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -11.67%E -9.64%K -55.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV +6.64%E +1.68%K +2.25%G +0.149% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -8.02%E -6.36%K -30.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +5.29%E +1.36%K +1.82%G +0.096% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.29%EV -8.02%E -6.36%K -30.83%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.71%EV +3.67%E +0.955%K +1.29%G +0.047% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 19:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.37%E -3.33%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +1.24%E +0.330%K +0.450%G +0.006% | 3.0% | 2026-08-05 19:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +1.24%E +0.330%K +0.450%G +0.006% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 12:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +1.24%E +0.330%K +0.450%G +0.006% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +1.24%E +0.330%K +0.450%G +0.006% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +1.24%E +0.330%K +0.450%G +0.006% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.60%EV -3.64%E -2.75%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.40%EV -0.653%E -0.178%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -0.923%E -0.252%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 15:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -0.923%E -0.252%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 15:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -4.37%E -3.33%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -1.46%E -0.401%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.29%E -5.74%K -26.98%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -1.46%E -0.401%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 16:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.37%E -3.33%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.37%E -3.33%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 19:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -3.64%E -2.75%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -4.43%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 16:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.37%E -3.33%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.51%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 17:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.51%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.51%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 06:04 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.51%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 19:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.51%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 23:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.51%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.51%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.59%EV -4.37%E -3.33%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.41%EV -6.32%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.86%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.86%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 18:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.86%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.86%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -6.86%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 19:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.64%E -2.75%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 10:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.37%E -3.33%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 06:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 05:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 06:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 14:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 12:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.29%E -5.74%K -26.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-05 14:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -9.56%E -2.85%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.91%E -2.18%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 16:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.91%E -2.18%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.91%E -2.18%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.91%E -2.18%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 16:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-05 18:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.19%EV -8.02%E -6.36%K -30.83%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 27.81%EV -11.72%E -3.58%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -12.26%E -3.77%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-05 16:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -2.91%E -2.18%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -13.61%E -4.25%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 05:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -2.91%E -2.18%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -13.61%E -4.25%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 05:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-08-05 19:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-08-05 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.2% | 2026-08-05 19:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.71% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29% | 1.4% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.24% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.76% | 2.7% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89% | 3.0% | 2026-08-05 19:20 |