Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michael Zheng v Kei Nishikori

2026-08-01 14:35 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michael Zheng (Local)

Prediction 66.86%1.50fair odd

EV -1.72%

Edge -1.17%

Kelly -3.66%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.81%66.94%66.86%68.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.381.411.401.4772.46%71.01%71.43%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kei Nishikori (Visit)

Prediction 33.14%3.02fair odd

EV +0.420%

Edge +0.139%

Kelly +0.207%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.60%33.06%33.14%34.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.852.843.0336.36%35.05%35.21%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Michael Zheng (Local): 66.86%; Kei Nishikori (Visit): 33.14%. For Kei Nishikori (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.03, producing a positive expected value of +0.420%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -6.40%E -4.57%K -16.00%G +0.000%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV +0.420%E +0.139%K +0.207%G +0.001%	4.4%	2026-08-01 11:35
Betway	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.40%E -4.57%K -16.00%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.89%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-01 11:19
PointsBet (AU)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.40%E -4.57%K -16.00%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.55%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-01 11:20
BetOnline.ag	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -1.72%E -1.17%K -3.66%G +0.000%	2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -6.21%E -2.19%K -3.39%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-08-01 13:25
Marathon Bet	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.67%EV -7.74%E -5.61%K -20.36%G +0.000%	2.76I 36.23%NM 33.33%EV -8.53%E -3.09%K -4.85%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-01 11:00
BoyleSports	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.40%E -4.57%K -16.00%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.86%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-01 11:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%	3.13I 31.95%NM 31.66%	0.9%	2026-08-01 13:30