Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Martin Damm Jr. v Henrique Rocha

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

66%

34%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Martin Damm Jr. (Local)

Prediction 65.95%1.52fair odd

EV -3.05%

Edge -2.07%

Kelly -6.48%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.53%65.95%65.99%67.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.421.441.441.4770.42%69.44%69.44%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henrique Rocha (Visit)

Prediction 34.05%2.94fair odd

EV +0.434%

Edge +0.147%

Kelly +0.223%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.65%34.05%34.01%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.622.802.772.9538.17%35.70%36.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Damm Jr. (Local): 65.95%; Henrique Rocha (Visit): 34.05%. For Henrique Rocha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.434%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -5.69%E -3.98%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +0.434%E +0.147%K +0.223%G +0.001%	3.8%	2026-08-01 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -5.69%E -3.98%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +0.434%E +0.147%K +0.223%G +0.001%	3.8%	2026-08-01 14:25
Pinnacle🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.37%E -3.01%K -9.70%G +0.000%	2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.31%E -1.17%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-01 14:20
Fanatics🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.03%E -3.49%K -11.42%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.67%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-01 14:25
Bovada🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.05%E -2.07%K -6.48%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.37%E -2.32%K -3.64%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-01 14:19
Betway🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.03%E -3.49%K -11.42%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.37%E -2.32%K -3.64%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-01 14:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.34%E -4.47%K -15.11%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.37%E -2.32%K -3.64%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-01 09:25
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.03%E -3.49%K -11.42%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.80%E -4.12%K -6.67%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-01 14:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%	0.5%	2026-08-01 14:20

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