Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcos Giron v Pablo Llamas Ruiz

2026-08-01 14:30 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marcos Giron (Local)

Prediction 64.42%1.55fair odd

EV -2.72%

Edge -1.80%

Kelly -5.34%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.44%64.47%64.79%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.461.441.5169.44%68.31%69.44%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit)

Prediction 35.58%2.81fair odd

EV -1.45%

Edge -0.524%

Kelly -0.819%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.37%35.53%35.21%36.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.662.652.7740.00%37.62%37.74%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marcos Giron (Local): 64.42%; Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit): 35.58%. For Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.77, with an expected value of -1.45%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -2.72%E -1.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -6.79%E -2.59%K -4.19%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-01 12:50
BetOnline.ag	1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -4.01%E -2.69%K -8.18%G +0.000%	2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -1.45%E -0.524%K -0.819%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-01 10:35
Betway	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.44%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.16%E -0.786%K -1.24%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-01 09:40
PointsBet (AU)	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.44%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.72%E -2.16%K -3.47%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-01 10:05
BoyleSports	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.44%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -11.06%E -4.42%K -7.37%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-08-01 10:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig	1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%	0.5%	2026-08-01 13:30