Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marco Trungelliti v Nicolas Mejia

2026-08-01 14:35 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marco Trungelliti (Local)

Prediction 56.67%1.76fair odd

EV -2.53%

Edge -1.47%

Kelly -3.51%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.70%57.11%56.47%60.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.551.651.661.7264.52%60.61%60.24%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nicolas Mejia (Visit)

Prediction 43.33%2.31fair odd

EV +1.82%

Edge +0.776%

Kelly +1.35%

Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.74%42.89%43.53%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.082.202.212.3548.08%45.49%45.35%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 56.67%; Nicolas Mejia (Visit): 43.33%. For Nicolas Mejia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.35, producing a positive expected value of +1.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Betway	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -12.16%E -7.85%K -22.11%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV +1.82%E +0.776%K +1.35%G +0.025%	7.1%	2026-08-01 12:44
PointsBet (AU)	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.63%E -4.68%K -12.10%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.51%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-01 09:09
Pinnacle	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.79%E -2.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.38%E -1.51%K -2.75%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-01 13:05
BetOnline.ag	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -2.53%E -1.47%K -3.51%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -5.54%E -2.54%K -4.70%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-01 12:25
BoyleSports	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.36%E -3.21%K -8.00%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.01%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-01 12:19
Marathon Bet	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.49%E -3.93%K -9.99%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -9.88%E -4.75%K -9.14%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-01 12:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%	2.35I 42.55%NM 42.26%	0.7%	2026-08-01 12:30