Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marco Trungelliti v Nicolas Mejia

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marco Trungelliti (Local)

Prediction 56.71%1.76fair odd

EV +0.368%

Edge +0.208%

Kelly +0.478%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.26%56.56%57.03%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.621.681.671.7761.73%59.48%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nicolas Mejia (Visit)

Prediction 43.29%2.31fair odd

EV -2.59%

Edge -1.15%

Kelly -2.07%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.86%43.44%42.97%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.182.232.2548.78%45.97%44.84%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 56.71%; Nicolas Mejia (Visit): 43.29%. For Marco Trungelliti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.368%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.368%E +0.208%K +0.478%G +0.002%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -9.08%E -4.32%K -8.26%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-01 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.368%E +0.208%K +0.478%G +0.002%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -9.08%E -4.32%K -8.26%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-01 14:30
Pinnacle🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.74%E -2.82%K -6.96%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.45%E -1.55%K -2.81%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-01 13:05
Bovada🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.30%E -3.18%K -7.91%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.59%E -1.15%K -2.07%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-01 14:09
BoyleSports🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.30%E -3.18%K -7.91%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.08%E -4.32%K -8.26%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-01 12:19
Marathon Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.30%E -3.18%K -7.91%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -11.25%E -5.49%K -10.71%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-01 14:28
Betway🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.44%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.59%E -1.15%K -2.07%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-01 14:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.57%E -4.64%K -12.02%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.59%E -1.15%K -2.07%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-01 09:09
Fanatics🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.59%E -1.15%K -2.07%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-01 14:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%	2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%	1.9%	2026-08-01 14:30

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