Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jaime Faria v Christopher O'Connell

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jaime Faria (Local)

Prediction 61.39%1.63fair odd

EV -3.62%

Edge -2.31%

Kelly -6.35%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.76%61.51%61.34%63.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.541.531.5766.67%65.04%65.36%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Christopher O'Connell (Visit)

Prediction 38.61%2.59fair odd

EV +2.32%

Edge +0.876%

Kelly +1.41%

Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.60%38.49%38.66%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.382.482.452.6542.02%40.26%40.82%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jaime Faria (Local): 61.39%; Christopher O'Connell (Visit): 38.61%. For Christopher O'Connell (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -6.08%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +2.32%E +0.876%K +1.41%G +0.033%	3.1%	2026-08-01 18:44
Pinnacle🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%EV -6.08%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV +0.005%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-01 18:44
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.56%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -0.767%E -0.299%K -0.489%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-08-01 12:40
Fanatics🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.62%E -2.31%K -6.35%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.40%E -2.20%K -3.72%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-01 14:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.08%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.40%E -2.20%K -3.72%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-01 18:39
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.85%E -3.13%K -8.82%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.33%E -3.05%K -5.24%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-01 12:10
BoyleSports🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.08%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.10%E -3.40%K -5.87%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-01 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -7.92%E -5.28%K -15.84%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.10%E -3.40%K -5.87%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-01 18:42

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%	2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%	2.4%	2026-08-01 18:44

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