Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacob Fearnley v Sebastian Ofner

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 16:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacob Fearnley (Local)

Prediction 63.60%1.57fair odd

EV -3.96%

Edge -2.62%

Kelly -7.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%63.61%63.45%64.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.421.491.501.5170.42%67.31%66.67%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sebastian Ofner (Visit)

Prediction 36.40%2.75fair odd

EV -1.37%

Edge -0.505%

Kelly -0.800%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.24%36.39%36.55%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.612.612.7140.00%38.35%38.31%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacob Fearnley (Local): 63.60%; Sebastian Ofner (Visit): 36.40%. For Sebastian Ofner (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.71, with an expected value of -1.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.96%E -2.62%K -7.76%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -1.73%E -0.642%K -1.02%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-08-01 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.96%E -2.62%K -7.76%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -1.73%E -0.642%K -1.02%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-08-01 15:34
Bovada🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.59%E -3.06%K -9.19%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.55%E -1.34%K -2.15%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-01 16:08
Fanatics🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.59%E -3.06%K -9.19%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-01 15:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.59%E -3.06%K -9.19%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-01 15:30
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.59%E -3.06%K -9.19%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-01 15:29
Pinnacle🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -5.23%E -3.51%K -10.67%G +0.000%	2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV -1.37%E -0.505%K -0.800%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-01 16:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.41%E -5.84%K -19.11%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-08-01 16:09
Marathon Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.76%EV -9.68%E -6.82%K -23.05%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 35.24%EV -5.01%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-01 16:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	0.6%	2026-08-01 16:40

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.