Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.25
assuming max odds 1.77
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Local): 44.26%; Botic van de Zandschulp (Visit): 55.74%. For Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.409%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -0.409%E -0.182%K -0.327%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -3.02%E -1.73%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 19:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.36%E -3.79%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.92%E -4.14%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.92%E -4.14%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 19:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.92%E -4.14%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.03%E -4.87%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.03%E -4.87%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -2.62%E -1.19%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.82%E -6.76%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 16:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%EV -3.06%E -1.40%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.39%E -2.03%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.02%E -1.73%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-04 03:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.39%E -2.03%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.02%E -1.73%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-04 03:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -4.39%E -2.03%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -6.36%E -3.79%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.84%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.69%E -2.74%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 19:23 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.84%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.84%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.36%E -3.79%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 19:18 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.84%E -2.25%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.03%E -4.87%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -4.13%E -2.40%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 16:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.72%E -2.69%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.13%E -2.40%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 19:23 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.13%E -2.40%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.16%E -2.91%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -6.61%E -3.13%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -1.90%E -1.08%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.35%E -0.760%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 18:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.02%E -1.73%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.02%E -1.73%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 04:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 05:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 11:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 11:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 11:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 11:37 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 11:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 04:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.69%E -2.74%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.69%E -2.74%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 18:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-03 14:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-03 14:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.80%E -3.43%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 14:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.71%E -5.99%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-04 19:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -7.49%E -3.58%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%EV -3.02%E -1.73%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 18:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -1.35%E -0.760%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.93%E -3.81%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.46%E -1.41%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 12:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.02%E -1.73%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-02 14:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.13%E -2.40%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 12:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.13%E -2.40%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 11:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.13%E -2.40%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 11:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-03 20:03 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.26%E -4.52%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.25%E -3.09%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-03 22:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.47%E -5.74%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 18:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.47%E -5.74%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.57%E -2.07%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 18:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.03% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97% | 0.9% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39% | 1.9% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92% | 2.2% | 2026-08-04 19:25 |
No published comments yet.