Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benjamin Bonzi v Hugo Dellien

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 18:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benjamin Bonzi (Local)

Prediction 79.70%1.25fair odd

EV -3.57%

Edge -2.95%

Kelly -16.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

79.23%79.72%79.60%80.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.151.191.191.2186.96%84.11%84.03%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hugo Dellien (Visit)

Prediction 20.30%4.93fair odd

EV -1.53%

Edge -0.315%

Kelly -0.397%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.70%20.28%20.40%20.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.504.674.674.8522.22%21.42%21.41%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benjamin Bonzi (Local): 79.70%; Hugo Dellien (Visit): 20.30%. For Hugo Dellien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.85, with an expected value of -1.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.60%EV -3.57%E -2.95%K -16.99%G +0.000%	4.72I 21.19%NM 20.40%EV -4.17%E -0.883%K -1.12%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-01 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.42%EV -3.57%E -2.95%K -16.99%G +0.000%	4.67I 21.41%NM 20.58%EV -5.18%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-01 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.42%EV -3.57%E -2.95%K -16.99%G +0.000%	4.67I 21.41%NM 20.58%EV -5.18%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-01 18:29
Bovada🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.36%E -3.64%K -21.82%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -3.56%E -0.749%K -0.949%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-01 17:59
Fanatics🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -5.16%E -4.34%K -27.16%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV -1.53%E -0.315%K -0.397%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-01 16:34
Betway🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.96%E -5.05%K -33.10%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -3.56%E -0.749%K -0.949%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-01 15:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.96%E -5.05%K -33.10%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.63%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-01 11:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.75%E -5.77%K -39.73%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.63%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-08-01 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -8.35%E -7.26%K -55.66%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -6.60%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-01 18:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 80.00%	4.88I 20.49%NM 20.00%	2.5%	2026-08-01 18:27

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