Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexei Popyrin v Thanasi Kokkinakis

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

38%

62%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexei Popyrin (Local)

Prediction 38.10%2.62fair odd

EV +0.210%

Edge +0.080%

Kelly +0.129%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.63%38.03%38.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.002.302.462.63100.00%43.42%40.65%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Thanasi Kokkinakis (Visit)

Prediction 61.90%1.62fair odd

EV +3.37%

Edge +2.02%

Kelly +5.03%

Growth +0.169%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.00%61.97%61.72%63.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.491.531.67100.00%67.11%65.36%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexei Popyrin (Local): 38.10%; Thanasi Kokkinakis (Visit): 61.90%. For Thanasi Kokkinakis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -14.27%E -6.34%K -11.42%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV +3.37%E +2.02%K +5.03%G +0.169%	4.3%	2026-08-01 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -3.60%E -1.42%K -2.35%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -2.82%E -1.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-01 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -3.60%E -1.42%K -2.35%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -2.82%E -1.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-01 15:34
Betway🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.74%E -1.90%K -3.16%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.06%E -2.62%K -7.38%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-01 16:16
Fanatics🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.65%E -2.71%K -4.58%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.30%E -3.46%K -9.99%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-01 16:16
BoyleSports🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -9.32%E -3.91%K -6.75%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.30%E -3.46%K -9.99%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-01 16:16
Pinnacle🎯	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV +0.210%E +0.080%K +0.129%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -5.92%E -3.89%K -11.38%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-01 16:05
Marathon Bet🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 37.40%EV -6.27%E -2.55%K -4.29%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.60%EV -9.01%E -6.13%K -19.17%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-01 15:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -61.90%E -61.90%K +0.000%G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -38.10%E -38.10%K +0.000%G +0.000%	100.0%	2026-08-01 16:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 50.43%	1.75I 57.14%NM 49.57%	15.3%	2026-08-01 16:20

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