Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Shevchenko v Kyrian Jacquet

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

42%

58%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Shevchenko (Local)

Prediction 42.39%2.36fair odd

EV -2.50%

Edge -1.09%

Kelly -1.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.77%42.51%42.31%43.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.232.252.3046.51%44.91%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyrian Jacquet (Visit)

Prediction 57.61%1.74fair odd

EV -1.49%

Edge -0.871%

Kelly -2.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.27%57.49%57.69%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.591.651.651.7162.89%60.61%60.61%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Shevchenko (Local): 42.39%; Kyrian Jacquet (Visit): 57.61%. For Kyrian Jacquet (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.71, with an expected value of -1.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.50%E -1.09%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.61%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-01 14:28
Pinnacle🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -4.20%E -1.86%K -3.33%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -3.79%E -2.27%K -5.66%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-01 14:20
Betway🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.62%E -2.05%K -3.70%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-01 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.62%E -2.05%K -3.70%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.10%E -3.74%K -9.68%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-01 12:54
Fanatics🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.62%E -2.05%K -3.70%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.67%E -4.12%K -10.76%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-01 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -6.74%E -3.06%K -5.62%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -1.49%E -0.871%K -2.10%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-01 14:10
LowVig.ag🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -6.74%E -3.06%K -5.62%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -1.49%E -0.871%K -2.10%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-01 14:14
Marathon Bet🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -7.59%E -3.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 57.82%EV -8.40%E -5.28%K -14.24%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-08-01 14:15
BoyleSports🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.86%E -4.12%K -7.70%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.67%E -4.12%K -10.76%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-01 12:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%	3.6%	2026-08-01 14:30

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