Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Vukic v Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Vukic (Local)

Prediction 65.22%1.53fair odd

EV -3.48%

Edge -2.35%

Kelly -7.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.53%65.31%65.22%66.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.451.451.4870.92%69.02%68.97%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit)

Prediction 34.78%2.88fair odd

EV +0.171%

Edge +0.059%

Kelly +0.091%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.49%34.69%34.78%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.622.742.752.8838.17%36.53%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Vukic (Local): 65.22%; Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit): 34.78%. For Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.875. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.880, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.171%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -5.43%E -3.75%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV +0.171%E +0.059%K +0.091%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-08-01 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.48%E -2.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -2.61%E -0.933%K -1.45%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-08-01 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.48%E -2.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -2.61%E -0.933%K -1.45%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-08-01 15:34
Bovada🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.43%E -3.75%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.61%E -0.933%K -1.45%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-01 16:30
Betway🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.43%E -3.75%K -12.07%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.35%E -1.58%K -2.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-01 15:15
Fanatics🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.09%E -4.23%K -13.83%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-01 16:57
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.09%E -4.23%K -13.83%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.83%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-01 14:59
Marathon Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 65.19%EV -8.04%E -5.70%K -19.62%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 34.81%EV -8.18%E -3.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-08-01 16:58
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.09%E -4.23%K -13.83%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.87%E -3.39%K -5.48%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-01 15:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%	2.1%	2026-08-01 16:32

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