Language:English
Corentin Moutet v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Corentin Moutet (Local)
Prediction 24.69%4.05fair odd
EV +2.48%
Edge +0.598%
Kelly +0.788%
Growth +0.020%
assuming max odds 4.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%24.74%24.73%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.783.754.1528.57%26.47%26.67%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 75.31%1.33fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -4.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%75.26%75.27%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.261.261.3183.33%79.31%79.37%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Corentin Moutet (Local): 24.69%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 75.31%. For Corentin Moutet (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.48%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.43%EV +2.48%E +0.598%K +0.788%G +0.020% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.57%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV +1.25%E +0.304%K +0.402%G +0.005% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -7.37%E -6.00%K -32.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.84%EV +1.00%E +0.245%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.16%EV -3.61%E -2.82%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -0.975%E -0.243%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 13:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -1.22%E -0.305%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.22%E -0.305%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -1.22%E -0.305%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -7.37%E -6.00%K -32.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -1.22%E -0.305%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.13%E -6.66%K -36.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -1.22%E -0.305%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.13%E -6.66%K -36.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV -2.21%E -0.558%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-16 13:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV -2.21%E -0.558%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-16 13:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -3.69%E -0.947%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-16 13:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.69%E -0.947%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.69%E -0.947%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -3.69%E -0.947%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -6.62%E -5.34%K -27.59%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 13:47 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -4.93%E -1.28%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.93%E -1.28%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.93%E -1.28%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.71%EV -5.17%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.29%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.00%EV -5.91%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -6.16%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.16%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.16%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.16%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 02:53 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.16%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.13%E -6.66%K -36.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 13:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.16%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%EV -9.63%E -8.03%K -48.17%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-16 13:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.26%EV -1.35%E -1.03%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-16 13:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 11:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 13:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 13:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -7.40%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.13%E -6.66%K -36.94%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.63%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.36%E -3.43%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.63%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.63%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -11.10%E -3.08%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.61%E -2.82%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-16 11:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.10%E -3.08%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.10%E -3.08%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.10%E -3.08%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.10%E -3.08%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.10%E -3.08%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.12%E -4.06%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.10%E -3.08%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 13:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -12.33%E -3.47%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.57%E -3.88%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.10%E -1.62%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 06:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.57%E -3.88%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.10%E -1.62%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 06:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.57%E -3.88%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.10%E -1.62%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 06:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.57%E -3.88%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.10%E -1.62%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 06:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -13.57%E -3.88%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.87%E -4.69%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-16 05:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92% | 3.2% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |
| Novig◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92% | 3.2% | 2026-04-16 13:55 |