The School of Odds
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Toronto FC v Orlando City SC

2026-10-14 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto FC (Local)

Prediction 39.98%2.50fair odd
EV -0.842%
Edge -0.340%
Kelly -0.569%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%39.99%39.98%41.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.262.302.4848.78%44.18%43.48%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orlando City SC (Visit)

Prediction 36.26%2.76fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.36%36.36%36.26%37.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.502.502.6243.48%40.04%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.75%4.21fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -0.636%
Kelly -0.841%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.63%23.66%23.75%24.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.853.804.1027.40%25.96%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Toronto FC (Local): 39.98%; Orlando City SC (Visit): 36.26%; Draw: 23.75%. For Toronto FC (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.48, with an expected value of -0.842%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.15%EV -0.842%E -0.340%K -0.569%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.06%EV -4.99%E -1.90%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.80%EV -3.08%E -0.756%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-04 11:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -4.84%E -2.03%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.11%EV -8.98%E -3.58%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.76%EV -6.88%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 11:20
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -6.04%E -2.57%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.49%EV -5.72%E -2.20%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 11:10
MyBookie.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.09%EV -7.64%E -3.31%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.17%EV -7.17%E -2.80%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-04 11:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.89%EV -8.04%E -3.50%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.20%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 11:09
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.89%EV -8.04%E -3.50%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.20%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 11:10
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66%EV -8.04%E -3.50%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -5.72%E -2.20%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 11:09
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.04%E -3.50%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -9.34%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-04 11:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.04%E -3.50%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -9.34%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-04 11:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.04%E -3.50%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -9.34%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-04 11:15
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -8.04%E -3.50%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -9.34%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -12.11%E -3.27%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-04 11:19
ReBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.97%EV -9.24%E -4.07%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.15%EV -8.98%E -3.58%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 11:10
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -10.04%E -4.46%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.23%EV -9.34%E -3.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -8.55%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-04 12:30
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.25%EV -12.04%E -5.47%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.14%EV -11.16%E -4.55%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 11:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.45%EV -13.24%E -6.10%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.83%EV -11.16%E -4.55%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -12.11%E -3.27%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-04 11:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.62%EV -14.04%E -6.53%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.39%EV -12.97%E -5.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.98%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-04 11:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.06%EV -14.04%E -6.53%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.65%EV -14.78%E -6.29%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.28%EV -12.11%E -3.27%K -4.49%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-04 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.99%EV -14.04%E -6.53%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -16.60%E -7.22%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.63%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-04 12:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.39%EV -18.04%E -8.80%K -17.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.36%EV -12.97%E -5.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.25%EV -13.30%E -3.64%K -5.02%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-04 11:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 39.84%2.44I 40.98%NM 36.25%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%13.1%2026-10-04 13:10