The School of Odds

Toronto FC v New England Revolution

2026-08-15 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Toronto FC (Local)

Prediction 39.76%2.51fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.889%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.33%39.88%39.76%41.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.282.302.4648.78%43.83%43.48%40.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New England Revolution (Visit)

Prediction 34.15%2.93fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.933%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.10%34.06%33.99%35.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.672.702.8540.82%37.45%37.04%35.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.08%3.83fair odd
EV -0.883%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.315%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.85%26.07%26.26%26.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.483.8030.30%28.41%28.78%26.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.46I 40.65%NM 39.44%EV -2.19%E -0.889%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.05%EV -2.66%E -0.933%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.51%EV -4.53%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-26 13:44
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -2.19%E -0.583%K -0.795%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-26 12:30
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -3.49%E -0.944%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 12:31
Marathon Bet2.36I 42.37%NM 39.50%EV -6.16%E -2.61%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.02%EV -6.42%E -2.34%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.19%E -2.33%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 13:36
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -0.883%E -0.232%K -0.315%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 12:30
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -3.49%E -0.944%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 12:30
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.01%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.12%EV -10.51%E -4.01%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -3.49%E -0.944%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 12:34
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 13:00
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 13:05
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 13:00
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 13:00
ReBet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 12:29
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.23%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -10.01%E -2.90%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-26 12:31
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -14.61%E -5.85%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-26 12:35
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -12.52%E -5.69%K -10.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-26 12:30
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.55%EV -14.51%E -6.75%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.19%EV -12.90%E -5.06%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -10.01%E -2.90%K -4.09%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-26 12:30
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.01%EV -16.50%E -7.86%K -15.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.12%EV -11.20%E -4.31%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 25.86%EV -13.14%E -3.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-26 12:34
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 40.68%EV -18.49%E -9.02%K -17.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.04%EV -16.32%E -6.66%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.27%EV -13.92%E -4.22%K -6.05%G +0.000%19.9%2026-07-26 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.