The School of Odds

Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers

2026-07-17 02:30 — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: Seattle Sounders FC (Local)

1.3375.19%Min
1.3971.97%Mean
1.4071.43%Median
1.4568.97%Max
63.26%1.581Min
68.11%1.468Max
65.93%1.517Mean
65.46%1.528Median
65.75%1.521IQM
66.10%1.513Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.45 under the IQM model: 65.75%

EV -4.66%Edge -3.21%Kelly -10.35%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Portland Timbers (Visit)

4.9020.41%Min
6.0516.53%Mean
6.0016.67%Median
6.9114.47%Max
14.03%7.130Min
17.17%5.824Max
15.02%6.658Mean
15.23%6.565Median
14.97%6.678IQM
14.89%6.715Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 6.91 under the IQM model: 14.97%

EV +3.47%Edge +0.503%Kelly +0.588%Growth +0.020%

Option 3: Draw

4.3023.26%Min
4.7820.93%Mean
4.7021.28%Median
5.3018.87%Max
17.59%5.684Min
19.98%5.006Max
19.05%5.249Mean
19.31%5.179Median
19.27%5.189IQM
19.01%5.260Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 5.30 under the IQM model: 19.27%

EV +2.13%Edge +0.403%Kelly +0.496%Growth +0.011%

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

BookmakerSeattle Sounders FC (Local)Portland Timbers (Visit) ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.45I 68.97% NM 66.88%EV -4.66% E -3.21% K -10.35% G +0.000%6.91I 14.47% NM 14.03%EV +3.47% E +0.503% K +0.588% G +0.020%5.08I 19.69% NM 19.09%EV -2.11% E -0.415% K -0.516% G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-05 03:00
SportsBet1.39I 71.94% NM 68.11%EV -8.60% E -6.19% K -22.05% G +0.000%6.75I 14.81% NM 14.03%EV +1.08% E +0.160% K +0.188% G +0.002%5.30I 18.87% NM 17.86%EV +2.13% E +0.403% K +0.496% G +0.011%5.6%2026-06-30 15:09
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43% NM 66.63%EV -7.94% E -5.67% K -19.86% G +0.000%6.60I 15.15% NM 14.13%EV -1.17% E -0.177% K -0.209% G +0.000%4.85I 20.62% NM 19.23%EV -6.54% E -1.35% K -1.70% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 03:00
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42% NM 66.56%EV -6.63% E -4.67% K -15.78% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.54%EV -2.67% E -0.410% K -0.485% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.90%EV -3.65% E -0.729% K -0.912% G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 15:09
FanDuel1.37I 72.99% NM 68.06%EV -9.92% E -7.24% K -26.80% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.35%EV -2.67% E -0.410% K -0.485% G +0.000%5.30I 18.87% NM 17.59%EV +2.13% E +0.403% K +0.496% G +0.011%7.2%2026-06-30 15:10
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53% NM 67.51%EV -10.57% E -7.77% K -29.37% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.13%EV -2.67% E -0.410% K -0.485% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.36%EV -3.65% E -0.729% K -0.912% G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-30 20:49
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42% NM 64.71%EV -6.63% E -4.67% K -15.78% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 15.31%EV -10.15% E -1.69% K -2.03% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.98%EV -11.36% E -2.47% K -3.15% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-05 12:54
William Hill1.40I 71.43% NM 65.03%EV -7.94% E -5.67% K -19.86% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 15.17%EV -10.15% E -1.69% K -2.03% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.79%EV -11.36% E -2.47% K -3.15% G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-05 03:15
888sport1.40I 71.43% NM 65.03%EV -7.94% E -5.67% K -19.86% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 15.17%EV -10.15% E -1.69% K -2.03% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.79%EV -11.36% E -2.47% K -3.15% G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-05 03:15
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43% NM 65.03%EV -7.94% E -5.67% K -19.86% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 15.17%EV -10.15% E -1.69% K -2.03% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.79%EV -11.36% E -2.47% K -3.15% G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-05 03:15
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43% NM 65.03%EV -7.94% E -5.67% K -19.86% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 15.17%EV -10.15% E -1.69% K -2.03% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.79%EV -11.36% E -2.47% K -3.15% G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-05 03:14
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53% NM 66.09%EV -10.57% E -7.77% K -29.37% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 14.98%EV -10.15% E -1.69% K -2.03% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 18.92%EV -8.47% E -1.78% K -2.26% G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 17:19
ReBet1.40I 71.43% NM 64.97%EV -7.94% E -5.67% K -19.86% G +0.000%5.80I 17.24% NM 15.68%EV -13.15% E -2.27% K -2.74% G +0.000%4.70I 21.28% NM 19.35%EV -9.43% E -2.01% K -2.55% G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-30 22:09
LeoVegas1.40I 71.43% NM 64.52%EV -7.94% E -5.67% K -19.86% G +0.000%5.70I 17.54% NM 15.85%EV -14.64% E -2.57% K -3.12% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.64%EV -11.36% E -2.47% K -3.15% G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-03 23:10
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53% NM 65.21%EV -10.57% E -7.77% K -29.37% G +0.000%5.50I 18.18% NM 16.12%EV -17.64% E -3.21% K -3.92% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 18.67%EV -8.47% E -1.78% K -2.26% G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-01 00:29
Betclic (FR)1.34I 74.63% NM 64.40%EV -11.89% E -8.87% K -34.97% G +0.000%5.40I 18.52% NM 15.98%EV -19.14% E -3.54% K -4.35% G +0.000%4.40I 22.73% NM 19.61%EV -15.21% E -3.46% K -4.47% G +0.000%15.9%2026-06-30 23:18
Winamax (DE)1.36I 73.53% NM 64.22%EV -10.57% E -7.77% K -29.37% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 16.80%EV -22.13% E -4.26% K -5.27% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 18.99%EV -11.36% E -2.47% K -3.15% G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-30 22:09
Winamax (FR)1.33I 75.19% NM 63.26%EV -12.55% E -9.43% K -38.02% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 17.17%EV -26.62% E -5.43% K -6.83% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 19.57%EV -17.14% E -3.99% K -5.19% G +0.000%18.9%2026-06-30 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerSeattle Sounders FC (Local)Portland Timbers (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.35I 74.07%5.20I 19.23%4.30I 23.26%16.6%2026-06-30 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:39