The School of Odds
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Seattle Sounders FC v Chicago Fire

2026-08-29 20:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Sounders FC (Local)

Prediction 35.94%2.78fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.71%35.94%35.94%36.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.592.602.7040.32%38.64%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Fire (Visit)

Prediction 38.46%2.60fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.13%38.46%38.46%38.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.422.432.5043.10%41.39%41.15%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.60%3.91fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -0.968%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.46%25.60%25.60%26.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.623.653.8028.99%27.63%27.40%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Seattle Sounders FC (Local): 35.94%; Chicago Fire (Visit): 38.46%; Draw: 25.60%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.80, with an expected value of -2.71%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -2.96%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.70%EV -3.86%E -1.54%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%EV -2.71%E -0.714%K -0.968%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-19 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -2.96%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.70%EV -3.86%E -1.54%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%EV -2.71%E -0.714%K -0.968%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-19 21:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -2.96%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.70%EV -3.86%E -1.54%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%EV -2.71%E -0.714%K -0.968%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-19 21:15
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.94%EV -6.55%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -6.55%E -2.70%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -6.55%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.94%EV -6.55%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -6.55%E -2.70%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -6.55%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:16
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.94%EV -6.55%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -6.55%E -2.70%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -6.55%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:15
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.94%EV -6.55%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -6.55%E -2.70%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -6.55%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:15
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.94%EV -6.55%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -6.55%E -2.70%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -6.55%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:15
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.94%EV -6.55%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -6.55%E -2.70%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -6.55%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:16
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.94%EV -6.55%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -6.55%E -2.70%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.60%EV -6.55%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 21:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.55%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.78%E -2.36%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-19 21:15
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.71%EV -8.35%E -3.27%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -8.47%E -3.56%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-19 21:16
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.29%EV -9.63%E -4.10%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-19 21:16
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.74%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.35%EV -10.40%E -4.46%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-19 21:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.87%EV -10.86%E -4.38%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.34%EV -10.78%E -4.65%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-19 21:16
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.87%EV -10.86%E -4.38%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.34%EV -10.78%E -4.65%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-19 21:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 35.03%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.50%3.23I 30.96%NM 26.46%17.0%2026-08-20 01:30

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