The School of Odds

San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis City SC

2026-08-16 02:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

San Jose Earthquakes (Local)

Prediction 56.76%1.76fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.80%56.69%56.76%58.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.501.621.631.7366.67%61.87%61.35%57.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

St. Louis City SC (Visit)

Prediction 20.89%4.79fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.212%
Kelly -0.269%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.83%20.75%20.89%21.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.424.404.7425.00%22.63%22.73%21.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.35%4.47fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.373%
Kelly -0.483%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.17%22.56%22.35%24.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.653.983.834.4027.40%25.11%26.14%22.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 56.03%EV -1.80%E -1.04%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.45%EV -1.00%E -0.212%K -0.269%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.53%EV -7.90%E -1.92%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:54
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -16.17%E -4.31%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:00
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -16.17%E -4.31%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:05
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -16.17%E -4.31%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:00
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -16.17%E -4.31%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:00
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -6.34%E -3.85%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -1.64%E -0.373%K -0.483%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 12:00
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -6.34%E -3.85%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -3.93%E -0.854%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 12:00
SportsBet1.64I 60.98%NM 58.08%EV -6.91%E -4.21%K -10.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27%EV -1.84%E -0.392%K -0.497%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -1.64%E -0.373%K -0.483%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 12:00
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -3.21%E -0.740%K -0.963%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 12:00
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 56.46%EV -9.18%E -5.74%K -15.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -13.94%E -3.62%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 12:05
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 58.58%EV -9.75%E -6.13%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -3.93%E -0.854%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -1.64%E -0.373%K -0.483%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 12:00
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -10.89%E -6.93%K -19.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -10.58%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 12:04
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 55.96%EV -10.89%E -6.93%K -19.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.92%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.12%EV -15.05%E -3.96%K -5.38%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-26 11:55
Winamax (DE)1.54I 64.94%NM 56.44%EV -12.59%E -8.17%K -23.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.69%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.87%EV -15.05%E -3.96%K -5.38%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-26 11:55
Betclic (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 56.74%EV -13.72%E -9.03%K -26.39%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.83%EV -9.15%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.44%EV -17.74%E -4.82%K -6.62%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 11:56
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 55.99%EV -14.86%E -9.91%K -29.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.00%EV -16.46%E -4.11%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.01%EV -18.41%E -5.04%K -6.95%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-26 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.