The School of Odds

San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC

2026-07-23 02:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

San Jose Earthquakes (Local)

Prediction 64.73%1.54fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -5.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.49%64.74%64.73%65.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.421.5074%70%70%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Orlando City SC (Visit)

Prediction 16.22%6.16fair odd
EV +0.418%
Edge +0.067%
Kelly +0.081%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.69%16.24%16.22%18.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.605.505.506.1922%18%18%16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.05%5.25fair odd
EV +0.964%
Edge +0.182%
Kelly +0.224%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.66%19.02%19.05%20.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.404.794.805.3023%21%21%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.79%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -5.91%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.88%EV +0.964%E +0.182%K +0.224%G +0.002%5.6%2026-07-12 08:24
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 65.92%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.25%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -7.53%E -1.32%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.66%EV +0.964%E +0.182%K +0.224%G +0.002%6.8%2026-07-12 08:25
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.43%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -6.72%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV +0.012%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 08:24
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -10.78%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -4.75%E -0.950%K -1.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 08:29
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 64.74%EV -2.91%E -1.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.19I 16.16%NM 15.69%EV +0.418%E +0.067%K +0.081%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.58%EV -5.51%E -1.11%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-12 08:44
NordicBet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.68%EV -4.85%E -3.30%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.11%EV -4.29%E -0.727%K -0.875%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -5.70%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 10:19
Betsson1.47I 68.03%NM 64.68%EV -4.85%E -3.30%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.11%EV -4.29%E -0.727%K -0.875%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -5.70%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 10:20
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.45%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -6.72%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -8.56%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-12 10:17
betano_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.45%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -6.72%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -8.56%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-12 10:20
LeoVegas1.40I 71.43%NM 64.27%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.45%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.98%EV -14.02%E -2.65%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -8.56%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 10:19
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 63.50%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -18.89%E -3.78%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -9.51%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-12 08:24
ReBet1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.25%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -12.40%E -2.30%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.30%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-12 10:19
Winamax (DE)1.38I 72.46%NM 63.23%EV -10.68%E -7.74%K -28.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.81%EV -20.51%E -4.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.97%EV -12.37%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-12 10:19
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.78%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 08:54
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.78%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 08:54
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.78%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 08:54
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.78%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 08:54
Betclic (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.39%EV -11.97%E -8.80%K -33.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.24%EV -18.89%E -3.78%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.37%EV -15.23%E -3.42%K -4.41%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-12 10:18
Winamax (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 62.49%EV -12.62%E -9.35%K -36.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.34%EV -25.38%E -5.52%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.17%EV -16.18%E -3.68%K -4.76%G +0.000%18.5%2026-07-12 10:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.37I 72.99%NM 62.57%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.49%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.94%16.7%2026-07-12 10:19