The School of Odds

Portland Timbers v FC Dallas

2026-07-23 02:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Portland Timbers (Local)

Prediction 41.54%2.41fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.22%41.57%41.56%42.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.202.202.3350%45%45%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Dallas (Visit)

Prediction 33.50%2.98fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.88%33.51%33.56%34.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.722.752.8941%37%36%35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.96%4.01fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -0.922%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.09%24.91%24.88%25.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.453.693.673.9029%27%27%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -3.21%E -1.38%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.54%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -2.67%E -0.685%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-12 08:49
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.22%EV -4.45%E -1.94%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.47%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -2.67%E -0.685%K -0.922%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 08:29
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.53%EV -5.29%E -2.32%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.88%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 08:29
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.53%EV -5.29%E -2.32%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.88%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 08:29
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -2.67%E -0.685%K -0.922%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 08:30
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -2.67%E -0.685%K -0.922%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 08:30
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.23%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 08:29
Marathon Bet2.24I 44.64%NM 41.61%EV -6.95%E -3.10%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.53%EV -6.86%E -2.47%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.42%E -1.71%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 08:49
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -8.61%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 10:17
betano_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -8.61%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 10:20
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.61%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 08:54
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.61%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 08:54
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.61%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 08:54
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.61%E -3.91%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 08:54
ReBet2.19I 45.66%NM 41.42%EV -9.02%E -4.12%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 33.72%EV -9.88%E -3.67%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -8.91%E -2.44%K -3.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-12 08:29
LeoVegas2.18I 45.87%NM 41.32%EV -9.44%E -4.33%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.99%EV -11.22%E -4.23%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -8.91%E -2.44%K -3.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 10:19
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.25%EV -10.69%E -4.97%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -12.89%E -4.96%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-12 08:29
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.55%EV -12.76%E -6.08%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.22%EV -14.57%E -5.71%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-12 08:29
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.01%EV -14.84%E -7.24%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 33.38%EV -13.56%E -5.26%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.61%EV -12.66%E -3.62%K -5.06%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-12 08:29
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 41.74%EV -16.92%E -8.46%K -16.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.07%EV -17.92%E -7.31%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.19%EV -13.90%E -4.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%19.8%2026-07-12 08:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.