The School of Odds

Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders FC

2026-07-25 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Philadelphia Union (Local)

Prediction 42.31%2.36fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.976%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.42%42.29%42.36%43.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.172.202.3151%46%45%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Seattle Sounders FC (Visit)

Prediction 31.55%3.17fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.601%
Kelly -0.886%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.58%31.62%31.55%32.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.652.912.903.1138%34%34%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.13%3.83fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -0.728%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.85%26.10%26.08%26.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.513.503.7531%28%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 41.97%EV -2.25%E -0.976%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.68%EV -3.45%E -1.13%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.35%EV -3.83%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-19 16:30
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.64%EV -2.68%E -1.16%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.47%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -3.31%E -0.895%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-19 13:15
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.56%EV -2.68%E -1.16%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.96%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -2.00%E -0.534%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-19 13:25
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.99%EV -3.52%E -1.55%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.13%EV -5.97%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -3.31%E -0.895%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-19 13:25
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.99%EV -3.52%E -1.55%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.13%EV -5.97%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -3.31%E -0.895%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-19 13:25
GTbets2.25I 44.44%NM 42.35%EV -4.79%E -2.13%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.04%EV -3.13%E -1.02%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.62%EV -6.45%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 13:20
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -4.79%E -2.13%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.31%E -0.895%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 13:14
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -4.79%E -2.13%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.92%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 13:15
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.79%E -2.13%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.92%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 13:13
Marathon Bet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.02%EV -6.06%E -2.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -7.49%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 13:35
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.64%EV -1.87%E -0.601%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.04%EV -4.36%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-19 19:40
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.64%EV -1.87%E -0.601%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.04%EV -4.36%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-19 19:40
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.92%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-19 13:14
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.92%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-19 13:25
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-19 13:15
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-19 15:15
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.23%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-19 13:25
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -5.92%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 13:25
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 16:30
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 16:30
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 16:35
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 16:30
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -6.91%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-19 16:35
MyBookie.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 42.79%EV -8.60%E -3.98%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-19 13:15
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.02%E -4.20%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-19 16:30
betano_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.02%E -4.20%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-19 16:30
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.02%E -4.20%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-19 13:15
ReBet2.13I 46.95%NM 42.71%EV -9.87%E -4.63%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.84%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.45%EV -10.10%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-19 13:35
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 42.79%EV -10.29%E -4.86%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-19 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.14%E -5.30%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-19 13:14
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.14%E -5.30%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-19 13:14
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.14%E -5.30%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -5.92%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-19 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -11.14%E -5.30%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -9.44%E -3.29%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-19 13:12
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -11.14%E -5.30%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -9.44%E -3.29%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-19 13:13
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 43.23%EV -14.10%E -6.95%K -13.69%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.58%EV -9.44%E -3.29%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -12.46%E -3.72%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-19 13:13
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -15.37%E -7.69%K -15.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-19 13:15
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.10%EV -15.37%E -7.69%K -15.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.78%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -13.76%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-19 23:35
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 42.44%EV -16.22%E -8.19%K -16.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.71%EV -16.38%E -6.18%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.85%EV -15.07%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-19 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 42.47%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.41%6.1%2026-07-20 13:10
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 42.65%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%13.8%2026-07-19 13:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-07-20 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-07-20 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-20 10:35