The School of Odds
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Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake

2026-10-10 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Union (Local)

Prediction 70.78%1.41fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -3.30%
Kelly -12.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.49%70.63%70.50%73.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.301.3581.97%77.25%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Salt Lake (Visit)

Prediction 11.91%8.40fair odd
EV +1.84%
Edge +0.215%
Kelly +0.243%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 8.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.17%12.15%11.78%13.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.477.508.5516.00%13.39%13.33%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.31%5.78fair odd
EV +3.88%
Edge +0.647%
Kelly +0.776%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.76%17.21%17.72%18.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.285.226.0021.05%18.94%19.14%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Philadelphia Union (Local): 70.78%; Real Salt Lake (Visit): 11.91%; Draw: 17.31%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.78. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.00, producing a positive expected value of +3.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.01%EV -7.99%E -6.15%K -26.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV +1.24%E +0.146%K +0.165%G +0.002%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV +3.88%E +0.647%K +0.776%G +0.030%5.4%2026-09-21 07:34
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.62%EV -9.41%E -7.35%K -33.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -4.72%E -0.589%K -0.674%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.76%EV +2.15%E +0.364%K +0.439%G +0.009%7.6%2026-09-21 07:34
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.27%EV -7.99%E -6.15%K -26.64%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.39%EV -1.74%E -0.211%K -0.240%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -0.448%E -0.078%K -0.094%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-21 07:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.27%EV -7.99%E -6.15%K -26.64%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.39%EV -1.74%E -0.211%K -0.240%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -0.448%E -0.078%K -0.094%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-21 07:34
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.72%EV -4.45%E -3.30%K -12.72%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.32%EV +1.84%E +0.215%K +0.243%G +0.004%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.96%EV -1.14%E -0.200%K -0.242%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-21 08:04
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -8.70%E -6.74%K -30.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.72%E -0.589%K -0.674%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -4.78%E -0.868%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 07:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.79%EV -7.28%E -5.56%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.04%EV -8.29%E -1.08%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -6.51%E -1.21%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 07:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.50%EV -6.58%E -4.98%K -20.55%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.78%EV -5.91%E -0.748%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -9.10%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-21 07:59
LeoVegas🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.70%E -6.74%K -30.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV -16.63%E -2.38%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.18%EV -9.10%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-21 07:34
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.53%E -9.22%K -46.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -16.63%E -2.38%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.81%EV -9.10%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-21 07:35
ReBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.30%EV -8.70%E -6.74%K -30.00%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.26%EV -11.86%E -1.60%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -9.97%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-21 07:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.23%EV -10.11%E -7.96%K -37.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -22.58%E -3.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.24%EV -11.70%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-21 07:34
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.87%E -4.41%K -17.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -10.67%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.43%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 08:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.87%E -4.41%K -17.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -10.67%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.43%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 08:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.87%E -4.41%K -17.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -10.67%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.43%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 08:34
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.87%E -4.41%K -17.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -10.67%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.43%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 08:34
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -7.99%E -6.15%K -26.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -22.58%E -3.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -13.43%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-21 07:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.72%EV -11.53%E -9.22%K -46.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.74%EV -25.56%E -4.09%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.53%EV -15.16%E -3.09%K -3.89%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-21 07:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 70.01%EV -13.65%E -11.19%K -62.06%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.56%EV -19.01%E -2.80%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.43%EV -15.16%E -3.09%K -3.89%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-21 07:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.04%EV -11.53%E -9.22%K -46.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.79%EV -19.60%E -2.90%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.17%EV -17.76%E -3.74%K -4.74%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-21 07:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.25I 80.00%NM 68.16%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.31%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.52%17.4%2026-09-21 07:34