The School of Odds

Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls

2026-07-22 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Philadelphia Union (Local)

Prediction 55.60%1.80fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -5.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.87%55.57%55.60%56.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.521.651.671.7366%61%60%58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New York Red Bulls (Visit)

Prediction 21.54%4.64fair odd
EV -0.048%
Edge -0.010%
Kelly -0.013%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.94%21.52%21.54%23.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.804.244.304.6426%24%23%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.86%4.38fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.400%
Kelly -0.521%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.86%22.91%22.86%24.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.704.004.004.3027%25%25%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 56.15%EV -3.81%E -2.20%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.94%EV -0.048%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.91%EV -3.09%E -0.729%K -0.954%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-12 08:44
SportsBet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -7.37%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -1.72%E -0.400%K -0.521%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 08:29
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.81%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -4.14%E -0.930%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -5.15%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 08:29
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 55.81%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV -4.14%E -0.930%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -5.15%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 08:29
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.56%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -8.45%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -2.86%E -0.673%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 08:30
FanDuel1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -7.37%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -1.72%E -0.400%K -0.521%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 08:30
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 08:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 08:44
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -13.15%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 08:54
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -13.15%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 08:54
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -13.15%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 08:54
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -13.15%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 08:54
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -15.99%E -4.10%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.86%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 08:29
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -8.26%E -5.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -8.58%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 10:17
betano_uk1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -8.26%E -5.00%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -8.58%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 10:20
ReBet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.12%EV -9.92%E -6.13%K -16.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.14%EV -7.37%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.58%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-12 08:29
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 55.70%EV -9.92%E -6.13%K -16.01%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.74%EV -10.60%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -8.58%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 09:04
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 55.87%EV -13.26%E -8.50%K -23.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.79%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.35%EV -10.86%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-12 08:29
Betclic (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 55.84%EV -14.37%E -9.33%K -26.62%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.23%EV -12.76%E -3.15%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -14.29%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-12 08:29
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.22%EV -15.48%E -10.19%K -29.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.09%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.69%EV -15.43%E -4.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-12 08:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.