The School of Odds

Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati

2026-08-15 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Orlando City SC (Local)

Prediction 41.11%2.43fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.906%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.37%41.14%41.17%41.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.212.252.3850.00%45.15%44.44%42.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Cincinnati (Visit)

Prediction 36.09%2.77fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.34%36.12%36.07%36.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.302.522.502.6743.48%39.70%40.00%37.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.80%4.39fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -0.952%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.71%22.74%22.76%23.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.753.994.004.2126.67%25.04%25.00%23.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.70%EV -2.16%E -0.906%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.28%EV -3.64%E -1.36%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 23.01%EV -4.01%E -0.952%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 14:50
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -5.44%E -2.37%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.93%EV -4.37%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -4.24%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 12:30
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.17%EV -5.44%E -2.37%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -4.37%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -6.52%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 12:30
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.89%EV -5.44%E -2.37%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -6.52%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 12:31
Marathon Bet2.29I 43.67%NM 40.71%EV -5.86%E -2.56%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.27%EV -7.25%E -2.82%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -7.66%E -1.89%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 14:50
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.70%EV -7.50%E -3.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.41%EV -4.37%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -6.52%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 12:30
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.30%EV -7.50%E -3.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.45%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.80%E -2.20%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 12:30
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -7.50%E -3.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.34%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -11.08%E -2.84%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 14:10
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -7.50%E -3.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.34%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -11.08%E -2.84%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 14:10
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -7.50%E -3.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.34%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -11.08%E -2.84%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 14:10
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -7.50%E -3.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.34%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -11.08%E -2.84%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 14:10
ReBet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.38%EV -9.56%E -4.34%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -6.52%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 12:29
LeoVegas2.18I 45.87%NM 41.26%EV -10.38%E -4.76%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.98%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -9.94%E -2.52%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 12:35
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -11.61%E -5.40%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -14.50%E -3.87%K -5.27%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-26 12:35
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 41.54%EV -13.67%E -6.51%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.65%EV -14.11%E -5.93%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.81%EV -8.80%E -2.20%K -2.93%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-26 12:30
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.35%EV -13.67%E -6.51%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.95%EV -15.19%E -6.46%K -11.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.71%EV -8.80%E -2.20%K -2.93%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-26 12:30
Betclic (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 41.74%EV -14.90%E -7.20%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.00%EV -13.39%E -5.58%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 22.27%EV -11.53%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-26 12:34
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 41.86%EV -17.78%E -8.89%K -17.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.40%EV -17.00%E -7.39%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.74%EV -12.22%E -3.17%K -4.29%G +0.000%19.5%2026-07-26 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.