Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Red Bulls v Nashville SC

2026-08-19 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Red Bulls (Local)

Prediction 34.08%2.93fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.75%34.07%34.08%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.692.702.8039.22%37.24%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville SC (Visit)

Prediction 41.51%2.41fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.96%41.52%41.51%42.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.192.202.3049.50%45.58%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.41%4.10fair odd
EV +3.24%
Edge +0.766%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 4.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.95%24.41%24.41%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.773.804.2328.57%26.53%26.32%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New York Red Bulls (Local): 34.08%; Nashville SC (Visit): 41.51%; Draw: 24.41%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.23, producing a positive expected value of +3.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet2.80I 35.71%NM 34.67%EV -4.58%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.39%EV -4.93%E -2.15%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.95%EV +3.24%E +0.766%K +1.00%G +0.032%3.0%2026-08-02 12:10
SportsBet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.47%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.22%EV -4.52%E -1.96%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-02 11:40
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 12:25
Coolbet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.58%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.34%EV -4.52%E -1.96%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.03%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 11:40
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -4.52%E -1.96%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 11:44
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.23%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 11:44
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 14:04
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 14:04
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 14:04
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 14:04
Marathon Bet2.79I 35.84%NM 33.43%EV -4.92%E -1.76%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.64%EV -7.01%E -3.13%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.94%EV -8.72%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 12:04
ReBet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.32%EV -10.74%E -5.00%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.70%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 11:45
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -11.39%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.55%EV -14.90%E -7.27%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.90%EV -10.92%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-02 11:40
LeoVegas2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%EV -10.74%E -5.00%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -12.14%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 13:59
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -11.39%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.25%EV -10.74%E -5.00%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -12.14%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-02 11:44
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 33.87%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.13%EV -14.90%E -7.27%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.99%EV -12.14%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 11:45
Betclic (FR)2.63I 38.02%NM 32.75%EV -10.37%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.64%EV -16.14%E -7.99%K -15.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.61%EV -14.58%E -4.16%K -5.83%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-02 11:41
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:29