The School of Odds

New York City FC v Toronto FC

2026-07-31 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New York City FC (Local)

Prediction 54.65%1.83fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.34%54.68%54.63%55.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.581.701.701.7763.29%58.92%58.82%56.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Toronto FC (Visit)

Prediction 20.81%4.81fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.291%
Kelly -0.369%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.18%20.78%20.82%21.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.104.434.404.7424.39%22.55%22.73%21.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.54%4.07fair odd
EV -0.844%
Edge -0.209%
Kelly -0.278%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.92%24.54%24.55%25.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.754.0428.57%26.71%26.67%24.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets1.77I 56.50%NM 54.53%EV -3.27%E -1.85%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.21%EV -5.33%E -1.17%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.25%EV -2.32%E -0.582%K -0.777%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 00:50
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.48%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.48%EV -1.38%E -0.291%K -0.369%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 24.03%EV -0.844%E -0.209%K -0.278%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 00:59
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -4.29%E -0.933%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 23:55
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -6.37%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -5.51%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 23:54
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -2.21%E -0.471%K -0.598%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -9.19%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 00:50
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -2.21%E -0.471%K -0.598%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -9.19%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 00:55
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.37%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 23:55
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.37%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 00:50
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.37%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 00:49
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -5.45%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.37%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 00:00
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 55.07%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.77%EV -5.12%E -1.12%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.16%EV -3.79%E -0.967%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 00:50
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -6.55%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.45%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -10.42%E -2.85%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 23:55
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.45%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.19%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 01:00
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.45%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.19%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 01:00
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.45%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.19%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 01:00
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.45%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.19%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 01:00
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -9.91%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -7.96%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 23:55
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.00%EV -7.64%E -4.52%K -11.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -4.29%E -0.933%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -7.96%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 00:49
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -7.64%E -4.52%K -11.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.37%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 23:54
Marathon Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.49%EV -8.19%E -4.87%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.49%EV -5.33%E -1.17%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.03%EV -4.77%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 00:50
MyBookie.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%EV -8.19%E -4.87%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -8.45%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -5.51%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-26 00:54
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -6.37%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -9.19%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 00:47
betano_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -6.37%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -9.19%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 00:49
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 54.57%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -11.57%E -2.72%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 00:55
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -12.62%E -3.00%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 00:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -9.91%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -11.64%E -3.23%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 00:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -9.91%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -11.64%E -3.23%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 00:49
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -9.91%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -11.64%E -3.23%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 00:49
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -9.91%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -11.64%E -3.23%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 00:50
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -12.62%E -3.00%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -14.10%E -4.03%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-25 23:55
Betway1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -9.83%E -5.96%K -15.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -9.91%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.73%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 00:44
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.89%EV -12.56%E -7.85%K -20.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -12.62%E -3.00%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.20%EV -10.91%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 00:54
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 54.63%EV -13.65%E -8.64%K -23.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.05%EV -14.70%E -3.58%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.31%EV -12.87%E -3.63%K -5.05%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-26 00:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 54.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.49%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.47%13.5%2026-07-26 00:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:00