The School of Odds

New York City FC v Philadelphia Union

2026-08-16 22:00 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New York City FC (Local)

Prediction 56.40%1.77fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.53%56.35%56.24%57.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.541.631.651.7364.94%61.17%60.61%57.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Philadelphia Union (Visit)

Prediction 20.37%4.91fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -0.684%
Kelly -0.866%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.02%20.40%20.30%21.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.854.414.404.7525.97%22.68%22.73%21.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.23%4.31fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.302%
Kelly -0.394%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.12%23.24%23.46%24.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.553.893.804.2528.17%25.73%26.32%23.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 56.03%EV -2.42%E -1.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.45%EV -3.45%E -0.728%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.53%EV -4.30%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 12:00
Coolbet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.17%EV -5.81%E -3.48%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.10%EV -3.25%E -0.684%K -0.866%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -2.44%E -0.582%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-26 12:00
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -5.81%E -3.48%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -10.38%E -2.36%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -12.90%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:00
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -5.81%E -3.48%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -10.38%E -2.36%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -12.90%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:05
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -5.81%E -3.48%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -10.38%E -2.36%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -12.90%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:00
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -5.81%E -3.48%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -10.38%E -2.36%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -12.90%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:00
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.35%EV -6.37%E -3.84%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -4.27%E -0.908%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV -1.28%E -0.302%K -0.394%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 12:00
Marathon Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.24%EV -6.37%E -3.84%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -6.30%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.46%EV -7.55%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 13:14
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -6.93%E -4.20%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.27%E -0.908%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -4.77%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 12:00
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.63%E -5.33%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -8.34%E -1.85%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -7.09%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 12:00
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 55.33%EV -8.63%E -5.33%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.09%EV -13.43%E -3.16%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -11.73%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-26 13:05
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69%EV -9.19%E -5.71%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -6.30%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -2.44%E -0.582%K -0.763%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 12:00
BoyleSports1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.76%E -6.10%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -11.80%E -2.73%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.73%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-26 11:58
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.49%EV -9.76%E -6.10%K -16.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -14.45%E -3.44%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.73%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 12:04
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 54.88%EV -10.88%E -6.89%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68%EV -18.52%E -4.63%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.44%EV -14.06%E -3.80%K -5.21%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-26 13:05
Betclic (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 55.04%EV -11.45%E -7.29%K -20.08%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.82%EV -15.47%E -3.73%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.14%EV -16.84%E -4.71%K -6.53%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-26 13:05
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 54.53%EV -13.14%E -8.53%K -24.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.81%EV -21.58%E -5.61%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.66%EV -17.54%E -4.94%K -6.88%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-26 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 54.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.45%16.9%2026-07-26 13:15