The School of Odds
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New York City FC v Nashville SC

2026-09-04 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York City FC (Local)

Prediction 40.72%2.46fair odd
EV -0.232%
Edge -0.095%
Kelly -0.160%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.89%40.56%40.72%41.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.252.302.4548.78%44.36%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville SC (Visit)

Prediction 32.87%3.04fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.579%
Kelly -0.869%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.15%32.80%32.87%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.812.802.9938.17%35.60%35.71%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.41%3.79fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.615%
Kelly -0.843%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.51%26.65%26.41%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.443.463.7033.90%29.09%28.90%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New York City FC (Local): 40.72%; Nashville SC (Visit): 32.87%; Draw: 26.41%. For New York City FC (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.45, with an expected value of -0.232%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.56%EV -0.232%E -0.095%K -0.160%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.42%EV -1.73%E -0.579%K -0.869%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.02%EV -8.61%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 13:05
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%EV -4.30%E -1.83%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -4.69%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.92%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 12:15
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -5.53%E -2.38%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -6.33%E -2.22%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.92%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 12:45
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -5.53%E -2.38%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -6.33%E -2.22%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.92%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 12:45
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -6.34%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -4.69%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -2.27%E -0.615%K -0.843%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 12:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -6.34%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.33%E -2.22%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.92%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 12:15
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -6.34%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -7.97%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -14.16%E -4.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 12:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -6.34%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -7.97%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -14.16%E -4.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -6.34%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -7.97%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -14.16%E -4.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 13:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -6.34%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -7.97%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -14.16%E -4.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 13:10
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -8.38%E -3.72%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.33%E -2.22%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.92%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 12:15
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -8.38%E -3.72%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.97%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -4.92%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:29
MyBookie.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -9.60%E -4.32%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.17%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -6.24%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:15
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -10.41%E -4.73%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -7.97%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.20%E -3.00%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-23 12:15
ReBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.55%EV -10.82%E -4.94%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.15%EV -6.99%E -2.47%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.30%EV -8.61%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 12:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 38.89%EV -11.23%E -5.15%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.36%EV -13.89%E -5.30%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.74%EV -22.08%E -7.49%K -11.33%G +0.000%17.9%2026-08-23 12:33
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -12.45%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -11.26%E -4.17%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -10.20%E -3.00%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-23 12:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -14.48%E -6.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.59%EV -11.26%E -4.17%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -8.88%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-23 12:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.92%EV -16.52%E -8.06%K -15.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.43%EV -12.90%E -4.87%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.65%EV -11.52%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-23 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 41.28%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%4.0%2026-08-23 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-23 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-23 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-23 12:30