The School of Odds

New York City FC v Chicago Fire

2026-07-25 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New York City FC (Local)

Prediction 39.82%2.51fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.993%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.11%39.82%39.89%40.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.302.4548%43%43%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chicago Fire (Visit)

Prediction 34.65%2.89fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.940%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.95%34.70%34.67%35.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.642.622.8142%38%38%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.53%3.92fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -0.786%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.53%25.48%25.45%26.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.353.593.603.8030%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.57%EV -2.43%E -0.993%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -2.64%E -0.940%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.92%EV -4.52%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-19 16:30
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 39.31%EV -3.63%E -1.50%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.98%EV -5.76%E -2.12%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -5.54%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 16:35
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.31%EV -3.63%E -1.50%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.98%EV -5.76%E -2.12%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -5.54%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 16:35
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.43%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -4.72%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -4.26%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 13:10
GTbets2.40I 41.67%NM 39.66%EV -4.43%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.48%EV -4.37%E -1.58%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.86%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 13:20
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -4.43%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -6.45%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.54%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-19 13:10
LowVig.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 40.03%EV -5.22%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.72%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.34%EV -4.01%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 19:35
BetOnline.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 40.03%EV -5.22%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.72%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.34%EV -4.01%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 19:35
Marathon Bet2.36I 42.37%NM 39.53%EV -6.02%E -2.55%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -6.45%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 14:40
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -6.45%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -2.99%E -0.786%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-19 13:09
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.40%EV -8.19%E -3.09%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.99%E -0.786%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-19 13:14
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.40%EV -8.19%E -3.09%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.99%E -0.786%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-19 13:25
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.45%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -5.54%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-19 13:10
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.45%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-19 13:09
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.45%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-19 15:15
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -9.92%E -3.81%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-19 13:10
MyBookie.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 39.98%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.61%EV -7.15%E -2.67%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -6.82%E -1.87%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-19 13:10
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.01%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.12%EV -9.22%E -3.52%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.54%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-19 13:13
betano_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -6.45%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.64%E -3.04%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-19 16:30
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -6.45%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.64%E -3.04%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-19 16:30
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.22%E -3.52%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-19 16:35
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.22%E -3.52%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-19 13:13
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -9.22%E -3.52%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -13.20%E -3.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-19 16:30
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -9.22%E -3.52%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -13.20%E -3.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-19 16:30
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -9.22%E -3.52%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -13.20%E -3.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-19 16:35
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -9.22%E -3.52%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -13.20%E -3.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-19 16:30
ReBet2.28I 43.86%NM 39.85%EV -9.20%E -4.04%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.55%EV -8.88%E -3.38%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -9.37%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-19 13:35
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -9.92%E -3.81%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-19 15:35
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -9.92%E -3.81%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -10.64%E -3.04%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-19 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -9.92%E -3.81%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -10.64%E -3.04%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-19 13:09
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -9.92%E -3.81%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -10.64%E -3.04%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-19 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -9.92%E -3.81%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -10.64%E -3.04%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-19 13:10
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -13.38%E -5.35%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -10.64%E -3.04%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-19 13:09
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.33%EV -13.38%E -5.35%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-19 13:30
Betclic (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 40.43%EV -13.58%E -6.26%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.14%EV -10.96%E -4.26%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.43%EV -11.92%E -3.46%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-19 13:09
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -14.38%E -6.69%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -13.38%E -5.35%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -10.64%E -3.04%K -4.26%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-19 13:10
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.12%EV -14.38%E -6.69%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.51%EV -13.38%E -5.35%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.37%EV -13.20%E -3.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-19 23:35
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 39.97%EV -16.37%E -7.80%K -14.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.97%EV -16.85%E -7.02%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.06%EV -14.47%E -4.32%K -6.16%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-19 13:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%7.0%2026-07-20 13:40
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 39.68%2.56I 39.06%NM 34.41%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.91%13.5%2026-07-19 13:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 32.45%1.19I 84.03%NM 32.45%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.10%159.0%2026-07-20 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 32.45%1.19I 84.03%NM 32.45%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.10%159.0%2026-07-20 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.88%168.5%2026-07-20 10:35