The School of Odds

New England Revolution v Toronto FC

2026-07-22 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New England Revolution (Local)

Prediction 53.45%1.87fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.04%53.36%53.45%54.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.721.751.8163%58%57%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Toronto FC (Visit)

Prediction 21.41%4.67fair odd
EV -0.639%
Edge -0.138%
Kelly -0.176%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.91%21.43%21.41%22.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.854.254.304.6426%24%23%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%25.21%25.13%26.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.353.613.553.8130%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.81I 55.25%NM 53.61%EV -3.25%E -1.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.91%EV -0.639%E -0.138%K -0.176%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.47%EV -4.24%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-12 08:59
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.86%E -2.73%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.26%EV -4.71%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 09:05
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.86%E -2.73%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.26%EV -4.71%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 09:04
SportsBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -4.86%E -2.73%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -7.92%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 09:05
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.99%EV -4.86%E -2.73%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -8.99%E -2.12%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 08:59
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -10.06%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 08:59
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -7.28%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 08:59
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -7.28%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 08:59
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -7.28%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 08:59
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -7.28%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 08:59
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.12%EV -8.60%E -5.03%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -7.92%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-12 08:59
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -9.13%E -5.37%K -13.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.06%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-12 10:17
betano_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -9.13%E -5.37%K -13.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.06%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-12 10:20
ReBet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -9.13%E -5.37%K -13.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -7.92%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -10.77%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-12 09:04
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%EV -9.13%E -5.37%K -13.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -10.06%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 12:10
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.04%EV -9.13%E -5.37%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.68%EV -16.49%E -4.23%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-12 09:05
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.23%EV -12.34%E -7.52%K -19.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -14.34%E -3.59%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.94%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-12 09:04
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 53.46%EV -13.94%E -8.66%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.99%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 25.54%EV -15.30%E -4.54%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-12 09:03
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 52.82%EV -14.48%E -9.05%K -24.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.95%EV -17.56%E -4.56%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.23%EV -15.80%E -4.72%K -6.72%G +0.000%18.3%2026-07-12 09:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 52.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.98%16.7%2026-07-12 09:04