The School of Odds

New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo

2026-08-08 20:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New England Revolution (Local)

Prediction 40.14%2.49fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.675%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.89%40.11%40.26%41.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.272.302.4548.78%44.00%43.48%40.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Houston Dynamo (Visit)

Prediction 33.27%3.01fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.626%
Kelly -0.947%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.17%33.34%33.02%34.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.552.752.752.9539.22%36.38%36.36%33.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.441%
Kelly -0.604%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.51%26.55%26.72%27.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.393.7031.25%29.18%29.50%27.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%EV -1.65%E -0.675%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -8.50%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 11:20
1xBet2.41I 41.49%NM 40.28%EV -3.26%E -1.35%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.91%EV -1.85%E -0.626%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.82%EV -3.76%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 11:20
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -3.66%E -1.53%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.50%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 11:15
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -8.50%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -1.63%E -0.441%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 11:14
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -8.50%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 11:20
Marathon Bet2.31I 43.29%NM 40.35%EV -7.27%E -3.15%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.71%EV -5.17%E -1.82%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.94%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 13:10
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.67%E -3.34%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -10.17%E -3.77%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 11:20
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.67%E -3.34%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.84%E -2.44%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 11:15
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.67%E -3.34%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.84%E -2.44%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 11:15
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.67%E -3.34%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.84%E -2.44%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 11:15
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.67%E -3.34%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.84%E -2.44%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 11:15
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -8.50%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-26 11:20
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -13.49%E -5.19%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 11:15
ReBet2.24I 44.64%NM 40.61%EV -10.08%E -4.50%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -6.84%E -2.44%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.91%EV -10.14%E -3.00%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:19
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -13.70%E -6.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -8.50%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -6.95%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 11:20
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -15.70%E -7.48%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.63%EV -11.83%E -4.46%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-26 11:15
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.06%EV -15.70%E -7.48%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.17%EV -10.83%E -4.04%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 26.78%EV -14.39%E -4.47%K -6.48%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 11:15
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 40.91%EV -17.71%E -8.64%K -16.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.89%EV -15.16%E -5.94%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.21%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%19.2%2026-07-26 11:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.